ROME, Dec 09 (IPS) – No one noticed it coming. After years of brutal conflict in Syria, many believed the battle strains had stabilized, leaving solely sporadic skirmishes and even the potential for negotiations.
Syria? Was there something left to report? That query was answered loud and clear on November 27.
Whereas the world regarded away, a jihadist coalition backed by Turkey launched a sudden offensive on Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest metropolis. Ten days later, Damascus fell.
The swift assault by the Levant Liberation Group (HTS)—a gaggle categorized as a “terrorist group” by the UN Safety Council, the USA, Russia, and Turkey—introduced again echoes of ISIS’s 2014 seize of Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest metropolis, or the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul in 2021.
In Syria, the Assad household’s five-decade-long rule has come to an finish. Moscow confirmed on Sunday that the household is now in Russia, however what lies forward for the nation they left behind stays deeply unsure.
The Highway Right here
The Syrian conflict started in 2011 through the so-called “Arab Spring,” a wave of uprisings—a lot of which spiralled into battle—sweeping by means of the Center East and North Africa.
Frustration with the Assad regime’s repressive and authoritarian rule, which had endured since 1971, erupted into mass protests that had been met with brutal crackdowns.
In response, the opposition fashioned an armed group referred to as the Free Syrian Military (FSA), a loosely coordinated coalition that quickly included Islamist hardliners.
Over time, these hardliners, backed by logistical and navy assist from neighbouring Turkey, seized management of the rise up, finally consolidating their energy within the northwestern area of Idlib.
In the meantime, the Kurds emerged as a 3rd drive within the battle. With their very own imaginative and prescient rooted in human rights and a horizontal egalitarian society, they distanced themselves from each the Islamist opposition and the Assad regime, which had handled them as second-class residents for many years.
Supported by the Worldwide Coalition, the Kurds dealt a decisive blow to ISIS, whose territorial grip—spanning an space the scale of the UK throughout Syria and Iraq—collapsed with the autumn of its remaining stronghold in spring 2019.
By then, Syria had fractured into three elements: Turkish-backed jihadists within the northwest and different border areas; the Kurds within the northeast—with a U.S. navy presence of their territory—and the Assad regime, supported by Russia and Iran, controlling the remainder of the nation.
This fragile equilibrium shattered on November 27. Syria’s map has been redrawn.
The collapse of Assad’s forces didn’t stem from a classy jihadist marketing campaign. As a substitute, 13 years of battle had left the military debilitated, counting on outdated Soviet-era gear and demoralized troops.
A grim worldwide backdrop added to the chaos. The autumn of Aleppo coincided with a tenuous ceasefire in Lebanon, following two months of relentless Israeli strikes focusing on Hezbollah, a vital ally of Assad and a prized asset for Iran.
In the meantime, Russia’s arms had been tied. 4 years right into a battle it had anticipated to final weeks, Moscow now faces NATO medium-range missile strikes by itself soil.
However Turkey holds the true leverage in Syria. Failed makes an attempt by Ankara to normalize relations with Damascus, coupled with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s current announcement of a full withdrawal of American troops, considerably formed the present disaster.
This echoes an analogous withdrawal announcement in March 2019, which led to Turkish-backed Islamist forces occupying the Kurdish-Syrian district of Serekaniye. A yr earlier, the identical teams took management of Afrin, one other Kurdish enclave north of Damascus.
Since then, Turkey has carried out an ethnic cleaning marketing campaign in opposition to the Kurds alongside its southern border, marked by relentless bombings and compelled resettlement initiatives which have displaced hundreds.
What Now?
“Syria has change into the epicentre of a Third World Battle: the Russians, the Worldwide Coalition, Iran… all the most important powers are combating right here,” Salih Muslim, a outstanding Kurdish chief and member of the Democratic Union Social gathering’s presidential committee, informed IPS in a telephone interview from Qamishlo.
Muslim, a former political prisoner, pressured the necessity for Syrians to coexist “no matter their ethnicity, creed, or ideology.”
Surprisingly, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the chief of the jihadist offensive, has echoed comparable sentiments. Nevertheless, his credibility is questionable given his historical past as a commander in Al Qaeda’s Syrian department.
In response to a report by the Rojava Info Heart titled “When Jihadism Learns to Smile,” Al-Jolani has labored laborious to assemble a “cautious fac?ade, each in international and inside politics.”
“The separation between ISIS and HTS is definitive. Nevertheless, debate continues over the character and extent of any remaining ties between HTS and Al-Qaeda,” the report states.
Spanish journalist and Center East analyst Manuel Martorell is sceptical about HTS’s guarantees.
“When Islamists take energy, they all the time declare they’ll respect minorities and keep away from imposing fundamentalism. However beneath these guarantees lies a hidden agenda that finally results in the Islamization of society and forces minorities to flee,” Martorell informed IPS in a telephone interview from Pamplona.
He describes HTS’s offensive as a part of “a strategic operation by Erdogan to impose his personal resolution for Syria,” which incorporates dismantling Kurdish autonomy and ethnically cleaning Kurds alongside the Syria-Turkey border.
“It’s inconceivable that pro-Turkish Islamist teams and Al Qaeda’s successors launched this offensive with out Turkey’s consent and assist,” Martorell added.
As uncertainty looms, Kurdish leaders have referred to as for full mobilization to repel the jihadist advance, warning that energy vacuums like this are fertile floor for the resurgence of ISIS.
Studies have already surfaced of ISIS exercise in desert areas and camps housing its households and associates. In the meantime, clashes between Turkish-backed jihadists and Kurdish forces are intensifying, significantly in locations like Manbij, northeast of Damascus.
On December 5, UN Secretary-Common António Guterres lamented the escalation in Syria, calling it the results of “years of power collective failure.”
Now, as hundreds of displaced Syrians return from Turkey, they cross paths with these fleeing yet one more unsure future—a brand new wave of exodus from a nation that has been in ruins for greater than a decade.
© Inter Press Service (2024) — All Rights ReservedUnique supply: Inter Press Service
