PORTLAND, USA, Could 21 (IPS) – Many nations world wide have a fertility charge beneath the alternative stage of two.1 births per girl, however one nation stands out with its exceptionally low fertility charge.
So, which nation at the moment has the bottom fertility charge on the planet? Is that nation
- Singapore
- South Korea
- Spain
- Sweden
- Switzerland?
Some extra demographic data could also be useful. This nation’s fertility charge, which has been beneath the alternative stage for forty years, declined to roughly one-third the alternative stage in 2023, or 0.72 births per girl. The fertility charge in 2023 was a fraction of ranges about fifty and seventy years in the past, which had been 3.8 and 6.2 births per girl, respectively (Determine 1).
The fertility charge of this nation is anticipated to stay lower than half the alternative stage for the subsequent thirty years and keep nicely beneath the alternative stage for the remainder of the twenty first century.
The nation has applied numerous measures to deal with its low fertility charge, together with childcare subsidies, tax reductions, childcare providers, money funds to oldsters, and prolonged maternity and paternity go away.
The nation’s president declared inhabitants decline a nationwide emergency and established a committee to arrange a plan to deal with its low fertility charge, inhabitants decline, and demographic ageing. A brand new Ministry of Inhabitants Technique Planning has additionally been established to handle these points.
The reply to the query of which nation at the moment has the bottom fertility charge on the planet is the Republic of Korea, generally known as South Korea.
Due to its excessive fertility charge within the latest previous, the inhabitants of South Korea grew comparatively quickly over the previous 75 years. From a inhabitants of almost 20 million in 1950, the inhabitants of South Korea reached roughly 36 million by 1975 and about 52 million in 2025.
The previous speedy development of South Korea’s inhabitants is over and is being changed by a speedy decline of its inhabitants.
By the top of the twenty first century, the inhabitants of South Korea is anticipated to be roughly the identical measurement because it was in 1950, round 22 million.
Inhabitants projections for South Korea constantly present a declining inhabitants over the approaching 75 years. The assorted variants of United Nations inhabitants projections, for instance, all present a quickly declining inhabitants for South Korea over the approaching many years.
The United Nations medium variant inhabitants projection expects South Korea’s present inhabitants of about 52 million to say no to roughly 22 million by the 12 months 2100.
The UN’s excessive and low variants additionally mission South Korea’s present inhabitants to be smaller in 2100 at roughly 32 and 14 million, respectively. The fixed variant, which assumes the nation’s fertility charge will stay fixed at its present stage, initiatives South Korea’s inhabitants to be 17 million by the century’s shut (Determine 2).
Apart from inhabitants decline, South Korea can also be anticipated to expertise speedy demographic ageing. South Korea’s younger inhabitants of the latest previous has been changed by an older inhabitants that’s anticipated to be even older within the coming years.
In 1950, the median age of South Korea’s inhabitants was about 18 years, and the proportion of the inhabitants 65 years or older was about 3%. The nation’s present median age is 46 years, and about 20% of the inhabitants is 65 years and older.
South Korea’s median age is anticipated to proceed rising, reaching 57 years in 2050 and 60 years by the shut of the century. Additionally, the proportion of the inhabitants aged 65 years or older is projected to succeed in 40 p.c in 2050 and 45 p.c by 2100 (Desk 1).
Why do the inhabitants projections present a declining inhabitants for South Korea over the approaching many years?
The reply to that query is comparatively simple. South Korea is solely experiencing fewer births than deaths. In 2023, for instance, the numbers of births and deaths had been roughly 236 thousand and 346 thousand, respectively, yielding a pure change (births minus deaths) of -109 thousand.
The explanation births outnumber deaths in South Korea is that the nation’s fertility charge is nicely beneath the alternative stage.
And why is South Korea’s fertility charge to date beneath the alternative stage?
The reply to that important query is extra speculative and complicated than explaining the nation’s demographic traits. The reply to that query wants some context and clarification about South Korean {couples} having kids.
It is very important acknowledge world demographic traits. Fertility charges beneath the alternative stage have gotten the worldwide norm. In over half of all of the nations on the earth, representing over two-thirds of the world’s inhabitants, the fertility charge is beneath 2.1 births per girl.
Amongst these many nations are some fifty populations, together with South Korea, which have a fertility charge nicely beneath the alternative stage. These nations, which embrace China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, Spain and Sweden, have a fertility charge beneath 1.5 births per girl (Determine 3).
Due to low fertility charges, nations are having fewer births than deaths, and that distinction yields unfavorable charges of inhabitants development. And due to sustained ranges of that unfavorable inhabitants development, nations are going through inhabitants decline and demographic ageing.
Varied vital components are believed to be behind the exceptionally low fertility charge in South Korea. Amongst these components are greater schooling, a declining marriage charge, excessive charges of contraceptive use, way of life decisions, difficulties discovering an acceptable mate, private targets and severe issues in regards to the future.
Additionally, extra components throughout South Korean society which can be contributing to the nation’s low fertility charge embrace a piece tradition with an exceptionally prolonged workweek, lengthy work hours, and stiff profession competitors, the excessive prices of dwelling, particularly for housing, schooling, and childcare, difficulties juggling parenthood with employment, gender inequality within the office, notably the gender pay hole, and the normal gender roles and inequalities in household and family issues.
Though South Korea’s fertility charge might enhance barely within the coming many years, it’s anticipated to stay considerably beneath the alternative stage of two.1 births per girl, leading to a unbroken pattern of fewer births than deaths all through the twenty first century.
Many nations, together with South Korea, are involved in regards to the decline and ageing of their respective populations. The governments of these nations are trying to extend their low fertility charges with pro-natalist insurance policies, incentives, and applications.
A closing query issues whether or not these pronatalist insurance policies, incentives, and applications of governments will elevate in the present day’s low fertility charges again to the alternative stage.
Such insurance policies and applications might enhance low fertility charges barely. Nevertheless, these will increase are sometimes non permanent and comparatively small, with fertility charges remaining considerably beneath the alternative stage.
Based mostly on the experiences of nations over the previous a number of many years, as soon as a fertility charge falls beneath the alternative stage, particularly to 1.5 births per girl or much less, the speed stays at low ranges. Most inhabitants projections for nations with low fertility charges don’t anticipate a return to the alternative stage quickly.
In conclusion, most nations with low fertility charges, together with South Korea, which at the moment has the world’s lowest fertility charge, are anticipated to expertise inhabitants decline and demographic ageing all through the remaining many years of the twenty first century.
Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Inhabitants Division, and writer of many publications on inhabitants points, together with his latest e-book, “Inhabitants Ranges, Developments, and Differentials”.
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