Within the wake of Bashar al-Assad’s downfall in Syria, Western media and policymakers have rushed to have fun what many see because the long-overdue collapse of a brutal authoritarian regime. But as historical past has proven in Libya and Iraq, the removing of a dictator doesn’t assure peace. Experiences have surfaced detailing mass killings of the Alawite group in Syria’s coastal provinces, serving as a grim reminder that regime change alone doesn’t resolve deep-rooted sectarian divisions within the nation. As a substitute, Syria now faces the prospect of yet one more cycle of instability, elevating questions on who advantages from this transition, and at what price. These realities mustn’t come as a shock, contemplating the background of the chief now presiding over Syria. Abu Mohammad al-Jolani or Ahmed Al-Sharaa as he now calls himself, is former member of ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and the Al-Nusra Entrance, and chief of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). He was additionally, till not too long ago, a globally wished terrorist with a $10 million reward set on him by the US state division.
Regardless of latest efforts to painting himself as a average insurgent, al-Jolani’s lack of management over his fighters has allowed for mass atrocities. Whereas al-Jolani’s makes an attempt to rebrand himself as a realistic chief, his previous affiliations raises questions on each his potential and willingness to rein within the jihadist parts inside his ranks. Many of those fighters are international, together with Uyghur militants from China’s Xinjiang area, and have lengthy histories with transnational jihadist networks. Their continued presence and affect counsel that Syria is probably not heading towards peace however fairly towards one other cycle of sectarian bloodshed.
The western media’s method to Syria has been marked by an excessively simplistic narrative: Assad’s brutality routinely means that his opposition needs to be good. Slightly than rush to have fun, Western media and policymakers should train warning and nuance of their method to Syria. Whereas Assad’s authoritarian rule and human rights abuses have been broadly condemned with heavy sanctions, it’s reckless to imagine that his fall equates to a greater future for Syria. The idea that any opposition power represents a step towards democracy ignores the nation’s advanced sectarian panorama, which has existed for tons of of years. Syria is dwelling to various non secular and ethnic teams, together with Alawites, Christians, Druze, and Kurds. These minorities have traditionally been cautious of the Sunni Islamist actions, given the persecution they’ve confronted.
The present wave of violence in opposition to these communities underscores the risks of endorsing a management transition with out critically analyzing its penalties. The mass celebrations and endorsement of Syria’s new management by Western politicians ignores these realities. In each Iraq and Libya the removing of authoritarian rulers led to extended instability, energy vacuums, and, in the end, the rise of extremist parts. Syria now dangers following the identical trajectory, significantly if minority teams proceed to be focused. Al-Jolani has vowed to punish the accountable forces, however with none ensures of neutral judgment on his fellow fighters, justice for the victims and Syria’s path to freedom stays nowhere in sight.
The brand new president has stated that Syria’s door is open, thus, unbiased humanitarian NGOs and organizations ought to examine the function of the accountable in latest killings. Lots of them have operated with impunity beneath totally different banners, shifting allegiances relying on strategic pursuits fairly than ideological convictions. The flexibility of al-Jolani’s administration to train management over these parts is in critical doubt, and there’s little cause to imagine that Syria is transitioning towards stability beneath his management. Western governments should keep away from making the error of legitimizing people like Al-Jolani with out acknowledging their pasts and their current incapacity to curb extremist factions. Diplomatic recognition and help needs to be contingent upon demonstrable commitments to defending Syria’s various inhabitants and curbing extremist affect.
The celebration of Assad’s fall was, at greatest, untimely and, at worst, a harmful endorsement of forces which will convey additional struggling to Syria’s already devastated folks. Humanitarian organizations should be allowed to research the claims of ethnic and non secular cleaning, and any new authorities needs to be held accountable for guaranteeing the security of all its residents. The worldwide group should resist the temptation to scale back Syria’s future to a binary selection between Assad’s brutality and Islamist insurgency. A extra sustainable and simply end result requires vigilance, essential inquiry, and, above all, a dedication to defending Syria’s weak populations.
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