For the previous few weeks, the once-close relationship between Russia and its strategic companion, Azerbaijan, a republic within the South Caucasus, has entered a interval of deep disaster. This flip of occasions stunned many, particularly contemplating that simply a few days earlier than Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow and Baku had signed a pact for strategic cooperation. However historical past has proven that Russia’s partnerships with former Soviet republics typically turn out to be tense when these states try to pursue an unbiased international coverage. Azerbaijan isn’t any exception.
Russia, because the self-declared inheritor of the Soviet Union, which collapsed in 1991, has lengthy thought-about the post-Soviet area as its unique sphere of affect. It has constantly reacted with hostility towards the previous Soviet republics that attempt to assert sovereignty of their international or safety insurance policies. Among the examples embrace navy invasion of Georgia in 2008; persistent political and financial stress over Armenia beneath Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan since 2018; annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014, and a full-scale conflict in opposition to Ukraine in 2022. Azerbaijan now finds itself added to this record.
What makes Azerbaijan’s case distinctive is its resilience. With a inhabitants of round 10 million, it’s a small state geographically, however not geopolitically. Its wealthy power assets, sturdy alliance with Türkiye and Israel, and trendy navy – sharpened through the 2020 Second Karabakh Battle – have made it the strongest actor within the South Caucasus. Not like Armenia and Georgia, Azerbaijan is much less reliant on Russia and extra keen to push again.
Russia’s diminishing energy within the area has accelerated the method of reshaping the stability of energy. The South Caucasus – comprising Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia – has traditionally been a zone of unresolved conflicts. Russia has performed a key position in perpetuating steady instability, typically fueling or managing conflicts to take care of management over the area. Its so-called peacemaking or peacekeeping efforts within the area have not often been impartial. Following the 2020 Armenia – Azerbaijan conflict, Russia deployed troops to the Karabakh area of Azerbaijan beneath the guise of peacekeepers. However its actual purpose was to remain there without end by controlling essential transport routes, particularly the Zangezur hall that connects mainland Azerbaijan with its exclave, Nakhichevan.
That technique has failed. The continuing conflict in Ukraine has drained Russia’s navy assets and compelled it to cut back its involvement elsewhere, together with Karabakh. As Russian forces steadily withdrew from Karabakh, Azerbaijan reasserted full management over its territory. The Armenian – Azerbaijani battle grew to become much less complicated with Russia’s partial withdrawal from all the area. The battle between Armenia and Azerbaijan – what as soon as appeared like a frozen battle – now seems nearer to decision. For the primary time in a long time, there’s a actual alternative for lasting peace within the South Caucasus.
One of the vital hanging developments is Armenia’s pivot away from Moscow. Russia nonetheless has troops in Armenia which clearly displeases the Pashinyan authorities. For over three a long time, Armenia depended closely on Russian navy and financial help. Below Prime Minister Pashinyan, who got here to energy in Could 2018, the nation has begun to show westward, searching for nearer ties with the European Union and the US. Whereas this has made Yerevan a goal of the Kremlin, it has additionally opened the door to better nationwide self-government.
On the identical time, Azerbaijan – backed by Türkiye and Israel, and more and more assured – has begun to problem Russia’s affect extra instantly. Baku, like Yerevan, wishes to fully free itself from the Kremlin’s affect. This twin shift is shaking the foundations of Russia’s dominance within the South Caucasus. If all three South Caucasus nations – Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia – handle to interrupt away from Moscow’s orbit, the trail towards lasting peace and cooperation amongst all of the three nations turns into rather more reasonable.
Current developments level in that path. In July 2025, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan held a five-hour assembly in Abu Dhabi, reportedly centered on finalizing a peace deal. Whereas the main points of the assembly stay confidential, the negotiations are believed to have included key points comparable to border demarcation, the rights of ethnic minorities, and the way forward for the Zangezur hall. Notably, this hall – lengthy desired by Russia as a degree of leverage – may now turn out to be an emblem of regional connectivity, linking Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Türkiye in ways in which strengthen peace relatively than gas battle. Probably the most hanging level is that Baku and Yerevan now meet with out Moscow, which was at all times current. This can be a signal of the Kremlin’s diminishing affect over the area. That momentum has now carried to Washington, DC, the place President Trump is internet hosting Aliyev and Pashinyan for trilateral peace talks – a possibility that might carry an finish to greater than three a long time of battle between the 2 neighbors.
Clearly, Russia isn’t remaining passive. The Kremlin has begun to stress Baku not directly, although with out concrete success to date. For now, Moscow is focusing its efforts on destabilizing Armenia in hopes of not directly influencing Azerbaijan. By supporting opposition teams and stirring inside unrest, the Kremlin goals to undermine Pashinyan’s authorities and derail the continued peace course of. But these efforts seem more and more ineffective. Pashinyan retains sturdy widespread help, and lots of Armenians are bored with being utilized in Russia’s energy struggles.
What Armenia and Azerbaijan want now’s sturdy worldwide help – to not extend their rivalry, however to assist carry it to an finish. The battle between them has deep historic roots, relationship again to the ultimate years of the Soviet Union. However after greater than three a long time of violence, displacement, and mutual distrust, each nations are starting to acknowledge that peace is in their very own finest curiosity. The time has come to finish the battle and start recovering the misplaced a long time by way of cooperation throughout a number of areas.
The second is delicate however stuffed with promise. If supported properly, the South Caucasus can emerge from Russia’s shadow and embrace a brand new period of cooperation, improvement, and regional possession. The worldwide group – particularly powers just like the US and EU – ought to seize this chance to encourage diplomacy, financial integration, and mutual belief between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Historical past has proven that no imposed peace is sustainable. But when the leaders of the area take the lead – and the worldwide group helps their efforts – lasting peace could lastly be attainable.
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