Dr. Olukayode Bakare is an esteemed scholar specializing in worldwide relations and sub-Saharan African politics. He earned his Ph.D. in worldwide relations from the College of Aberdeen, UK, and has held educating and analysis positions at varied universities in Nigeria and the UK. Dr. Bakare has performed pivotal roles in scholarly boards inside his subject and has offered at quite a few worldwide conferences. He’s at present a researcher in Worldwide Relations on the Faculty of Worldwide International and Worldwide Research, State College of New York, OSWEGO, New York, USA. He’s additionally a Visiting Fellow in Safety and Statecraft on the London Faculty of Economics and Political Science’s Division of Worldwide Relations, United Kingdom. He has additionally served as a Educating Assistant and Visiting Fellow within the subject of worldwide affairs, Durham College’s Faculty of Authorities and Worldwide Affairs in Durham, United Kingdom.
Dr. Bakare’s tutorial pursuits deal with overseas coverage, democratization, safety, growth, worldwide organizations, sub-Saharan African politics, and geopolitical points. He’s devoted to educating others in regards to the complexities and nuances of the African area, striving to reinforce understanding of up to date African challenges.
The place do you see essentially the most thrilling analysis/debates taking place in your subject?
I can see essentially the most thrilling analysis and debates in my subject on the present geopolitical shift and political panorama in sub-Saharan Africa. Points akin to safety, economic system, hybrid regimes, coups, and immigration, have been the central focus of curiosity which have attracted scholarly debates and analysis almost about the continuing scramble for regional dominance and conflict of ideologies between the Western and Japanese blocs within the area. This has prompted researchers and students to revisit the Chilly Warfare period (1945-1990). For instance, the resurgence of army coups in West Africa in latest occasions underscored a shift in world order and a conflict of ideologies between France, the united statesA. and Russia. Whereas Moscow’s intervention and involvement in Africa since its defeat within the Chilly Warfare lags behind different world powers, it’s more and more tapping into anti-Western sentiment or ideologies to bolster its affect on the continent. These debates on the altering International Order analysis, notably in Africa, reveals that the rising geopolitical contest between the Kremlin and the White Home in Africa, France’s Niger debacle that led to the withdrawal of 1,500 troops from Niger, and the persistent army coups in Burkina Faso, Chad, Gabon, Guinea, and Mali, leaves a gaping gap in Western efforts to totally democratise Africa and counter a decade-long Islamist insurgency and will improve Moscow’s affect and entrenchment of authoritarianism throughout the huge, ungovernable borders of West Africa, which thus poses threats to worldwide safety order and democracy within the area and thus underscores a brand new Chilly Warfare period within the area. The problem confronted by the U.S. and France in sustaining and sustaining their strategic pursuits in sub-Saharan Africa underscores an attention-grabbing second and a brand new discourse on geopolitical rivalries within the area affected by democratic backsliding and insecurity. Apparently, the erosion of each American and French strategic affect within the area requires a recalibration and rejigging of their overseas coverage approaches within the face of shifting alliances within the Sahel with the Kremlin.
How has the way in which you perceive the world modified over time, and what (or who) prompted essentially the most important shifts in your pondering?
The world has definitely modified over time because of the geopolitical tensions and uncertainties which have accompanied the Chilly Warfare period (1945-1990). I might say that throughout the mainstream conceptualisation of worldwide order, hierarchical buildings, and anarchical system in world politics at the moment, essentially the most compelling understanding of my view about the way in which the world has modified over time. This variation can’t be remoted from the view that the complete world is at present present process instability because the creation of the United Nations in 1945. Within the face of a worldwide enlargement of lethal conflicts, the United Nations has failed to keep up world peace and order. Following the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, and rising incidences of lethal battle within the Center East (Israeli-Palestinian battle, Afghanistan, the Caucasus, the Horn of Africa and Sudan), Ukraine, Sub-Saharan Africa (Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Somalia), and Asia (Ecuador, Colombia, India, Indonesia and Thailand), I conclude that the world is sitting on a powderkeg, edging in direction of perpetual instability and anarchy, whereas the UN continues to stay weakened because of the actions of veto-wielding everlasting members, such because the US, France, China, UK, and Russia.
How do you envision the African Union’s position within the rising multipolar geopolitical order?
The position of the African Union (AU) within the rising multipolar geopolitical panorama can’t be separated from the bipolar (1945-1990), unipolar, and multipolar geopolitical order. The tip of the Chilly Warfare between the US and USSR ended the bipolar, geopolitical rivalries, and tensions from 1945-1990. In the meantime, the continent of Africa was not spared from the naïve optimism and uncertainties that accompanied this period. In response to the ideological rivalries between the 2 blocs, in 1955, the representatives and leaders of African and Asian nations assembled in Bandung, Indonesia, to debate the position of the Third World nations in financial growth and decolonization in the course of the Chilly Warfare. The Bandung convention was a historic step for the attainment of decolonization and financial transformation of each the African and Asian continents – it gave start to the precept of the Non-aligned Motion (NAM), and led to the formation of the Organisation of the Africa Unity (OAU) in Might 1963. Though the OAU was instrumental for the decolonization and financial prosperity of African nations, the query of find out how to assemble a virile African overseas coverage with out favouring both of the 2 blocs and sowing disunity among the many African states posed severe challenges to the OAU in the course of the bipolarity period. The demise of the bipolar world witnessed the African continent tilting in direction of the West for political and financial assist. From 1991-2014, the African continent was embroiled within the ‘fever’ of the US unipolarity syndrome, with continued dependence on the West for financial development and growth. In the meantime, following the financial and political realities and uncertainties that accompanied the Chilly Warfare, and the lack of the OAU to supply sensible options to the underlying contradictions militating towards the African continent, the AU was fashioned in 2001 by two main African presidents, Thabo Mbeki of South Africa and Olusegun Obasanjo of Nigeria. The realisation of the necessity to push the African continent out of political instability and underdevelopment, for higher illustration and to talk with one voice on the world degree, strengthened the formation of the AU as an instrument of African options to African issues.
In the meantime, the creation of the AU and the emergence of the multipolar system order, owing to globalization and interdependence, has reshaped the worldwide order and repositioned the African continent as a robust pressure to reckon with the financial and political affect of China, which has been extra domineering and difficult to conventional powers just like the UK, France and U.S.A. In the present day, we might see the resurgence and rising affect of Russia in its place world energy for countering terrorism and insecurity within the Sahel. As famous by the Council of Overseas Affairs, the rising affect of Russia and covert assist of authoritarianism, such because the backing of army coups in Africa, is undermining and eroding Africa’s democratic values and establishments. Equally, the latest alignment of the “coup belt” nations with Russian personal army Wagna Group, is reinforcing battle, worsening human rights abuses, and full militarization of governance within the Sahel. As Russia continues to whittle down the Western affect within the area, nevertheless, the US and different Western nations should as a matter of urgency prioritise growth initiatives, for selling democracy and stability in Africa. In any other case, the strategic pursuits of those nice powers within the Gulf of Guinea could be overtaken by each Beijing and the Kremlin.
As well as, it is also argued that the latest growth in Africa and around the globe has modified the African place in world politics. For instance, the Discussion board on China-Africa Cooperation and the Africa-EU Partnership had been each established in 2000, and the Russia-Africa Summit in 2019, all of which gave the AU the platforms to articulate the strategic objectives of the continent within the areas of economics, politics and safety within the rising multipolar order. Lastly, it should even be confused that regardless of the strategic significance of Africa within the present multipolar order system, the very fact stays that Africa nonetheless faces quite a few and daunting challenges, akin to local weather change, stunted financial development and growth, political corruption, human rights abuses, democratic backsliding, and imperialism.
Africa has seen 9 profitable coup d’états since 2020. Are there any similarities throughout these nations that time to a democratic disaster in Africa?
Sure, there are similarities throughout all of the nations the place coups have taken place in Africa within the final 5 years. Throughout this time, army intervention in African politics has change into more and more widespread, usually serving as an alternative choice to democratic elections. Navy juntas have emerged as one of the crucial prevalent types of governance, representing a shift away from conventional Western fashions of institutional governance.
For instance, think about the sudden unconstitutional overthrow of the democratically elected authorities of Mali in March 2012, Mauritania (August 2008), Guinea-Bissau (December 2008 and April 2012), and Niger (February 2010, July 2023), Burkina Faso (January 2022 and September 2022), Gabon (August 2023), The Gambia and the island nation of Sao Tome and Principe in 2021. All these situations go away many African leaders annoyed over find out how to stem the tide of this autocratic resurgence in Africa. The similarities within the habits of army leaders and the nations which have skilled coups in sub-Saharan Africa over the previous 5 years counsel the existence of a “putsch playbook.” This strategy displays the ambitions of aspiring autocrats to consolidate energy and preserve management for so long as potential. Emblematic of this strategy is the truth that not one of the army juntas in Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali at present have particular transition dates to civilian authorities, except Gabon that just lately transitioned to democratically elected authorities in April 2025 since after the coup in August 2023.
Did the COVID-19 pandemic play a task in diminishing democratic rule in Sub-Saharan Africa?
COVID-19 performed a elementary position in diminishing democratic rule in Sub-Saharan Africa. For instance, earlier than its outbreak in March 2020 and in the course of the pandemic, a majority of the African nations (e.g. Somalia, Ethiopia and Sudan) had been already fighting political instability, insecurity, and financial dislocations, brought on by the political corruption and lack of the rule of regulation. Equally, earlier than COVID-19, many African heads of state had violated time period limits and rigged elections, which regularly resulted in electoral disputes, political assassination, and civil unrest. Nonetheless, throughout and after the pandemic, many African states had been caught within the fever lure of the COVID-19 financial shocks and stagnation, and the attendant results of starvation, poverty, unemployment, mounting insecurity, and populism, which had triggered the coups in Burkina Faso, Chad, Gabon, Guinea, Mali, and Niger. Furthermore, these results offered higher leverage for suspending the elections in Uganda and Tanzania, inflicting severe political violations and the abuse of human rights because of the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions. A few of the poorest populations in nations akin to Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, and extra, had been usually deserted by their governments and made to deal with the assorted issues, pushing their ailing and fragile livelihoods in direction of additional humanitarian disaster.
Primarily based in your analysis on Nigerian-European Union relations, what key insights have you ever gained relating to Nigeria’s strategic pursuits?
My analysis on Nigeria-European Union relations has offered me with key insights relating to the tenor and recalibration of Nigerian overseas coverage and strategic pursuits, notably since its return to civil democratic rule in 1999, which marked the tip of 19 years of army interregnum within the nation. At that time, one of many main challenges confronted by the Nigerian state was find out how to redirect its overseas coverage and to reposition itself among the many committee of countries. First, I might say that over the past twenty years, Nigerian overseas coverage and strategic relations with the EU and worldwide neighborhood have been redirected from unilateralism to multilateralism in direction of the promotion of peace, safety, and democracy in Africa. For instance, given its regional clout within the West African sub-region, it has persistently deployed its multilateral diplomacy, utilizing its army may to advertise democracy in West Africa inside each the regional (Financial Group of West African States (ECOWAS)) and continental organizations (AU) in Africa. While shaping the worldwide neighborhood with its regional clout, it has persistently used its geostrategic location within the West African sub-region, inhabitants, army power and endowed pure sources to pursue dynamic overseas coverage aims on the ranges of the EU, taking over the position of guarantor and gatekeeper of the EU’s strategic pursuits within the Gulf of Guinea.
However, it have to be confused that Nigeria’s strategic pursuits in direction of the EU, notably throughout the worldwide neighborhood, are at present being undermined by the erosion of democracy and constitutionality. One of many cardinal aims of the EU’s strategic pursuits in Nigeria and the Gulf of Guinea is the promotion of democracy, safety, and growth. Nonetheless, Nigeria is at present at a crossroads with regard to the dearth of democratic cultures throughout the three tiers of presidency – govt, legislature, and judiciary. For instance, the unlawful suspension of Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan for six months, following a sexual allegation towards Nigerian Senate President Godswill Akpabio, has sparked widespread nationwide and worldwide condemnation. Critics argued that the suspension violated democratic ideas, disregarded the rule of regulation, and mirrored a violation for ladies’s elementary rights in Nigeria. The Nigerian Senate has confronted ridicule for its dealing with of the allegation and failure to uphold correct democratic procedures. The suspension of Senator Apoti-Uduaghan by the Nigerian Senate below the management of the Nigerian Senate President (who was additionally the presiding officer on the case) is a brazen constitutional breach, demonstrating an abuse of energy and systemic corruption which undermines the legitimacy of the Nigerian regulation making physique in advancing democracy, the rule of regulation and elementary human rights. Since these goals are a part of the cardinal strategic aims of the EU in Nigeria, it’s evident that the consequences of such crises enormously undermine Nigeria-EU relations.
How did Omar Bashir’s coup-proofing methods in Sudan affect regime stability?
Coup-proofing methods merely suggest the Machiavellian and anti-coup mechanisms deployed by the authoritarian and autocratic leaders from the International South to strengthen their regimes towards assaults or army coups. This motion has been used primarily for the aim of regime stability in each democracies and hybrid regimes within the International South. For instance, in Africa, Presidents Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, Pual Biya of Cameroon, Alpha Condé of Guinea, Bola Ahmed Tinubu of Nigeria, Charles Taylor of Liberia, and Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, had all deployed coup-proofing actions, akin to creating paramilitary establishments, implementing ethnic stacking throughout the army, and interesting in corruption to weaken the army and forestall them from finishing up a army coup.
Coup-proofing motion could also be seen as a weaponized technique by autocratic leaders, although with implications on the regime that coup-proofs. For instance, the lack of the army to cease the rebellion that ultimately led to the December Revolution of 2019 in Sudan resulted in Omar al-Bashir’s elimination by his former army officers from the identical ethnic group that felt dissatisfied along with his regime. Moreover, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt was faraway from workplace in 2011 as a result of police welfare situations had been prioritised by the regime over the deterioration of working situations of the Egyptian military that was supposed to guard Mubarak’s regime within the wake of the huge protests throughout Egypt. I might conclude that coup-proofing methods have been efficient methods utilized by most authoritarian or autocratic leaders for regime elongation within the International South, but additionally have implications and penalties for democratization and political growth in areas the place they’re being practiced.
What would be the largest problem in African safety within the years to return?
The most important problem in African safety within the close to future will likely be persistent and imminent dissatisfaction with governments throughout the continent, resulting in political instability induced by coups, dissatisfaction with civilian governments, and regional disintegration. Consequently, the long run tendencies of those components will likely be collectively reinforcing, and African safety outcomes will likely be impacted in varied methods.
First, the African political panorama will proceed to be characterised and punctuated by the rising waves of coups, strengthened by the dearth of free and truthful elections, financial dislocation, and rising insecurity. Common protests and civil actions for democracy and towards autocracy will stay below strain to problem the established order. For instance, the slated elections for 2025 in Gabon, Tanzania, Cameroon, and Côte d’Ivoire, and Nigeria in 2027, could also be an electoral train in futility, as these elections should not anticipated to carry in regards to the desired change and credibility, regardless of the promise of electoral reforms through using applied sciences to cut back electoral malpractices. The multiplier results of those challenges are the collective revolts and resistance from the liberation actions and the youth, in addition to the spontaneous resurgence of repressive actions from the safety forces to clamp down protesters, additional snowballing into civil unrest and political battle.
Second, frustration and dissatisfaction with authoritarian or civilian governments can set off riot and battle. Persistent and rising extremist organisations within the wider Sahel, Horn of Africa, Central Africa, and different components of the continent – that specialists declare are brought on by weak governance, corruption, democratic deficit, and human rights violations – are prone to persist and exacerbate the humanitarian crises and instability throughout Africa. Jihadist fighters within the Sahel and secessionist agitations in addition to youth protests in Nigeria, Mali, Cameroon, Kenya, Ethiopia, and past, are prone to proceed within the area.
Lastly, the 50-year-old West African bloc, ECOWAS, has been weakened, and has suffered polarisation and exacerbated insecurity, following the abrupt exit of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger from the bloc, posing important dangers to the US and Europe’s strategic pursuits within the West African sub-region. The persevering with collapse of the worldwide coalition on counterterrorism assist, as properly the failure of the political management in regional efforts to finish poverty, has created a vacuum through which the lethal Jihadist fighters will proceed to fester within the area. Equally, the present isolationist American coverage in direction of Africa below Trump, and the rising affect of Russia and China within the “coup belt”, poses important threats to democratisation and “Western” affect within the area, in addition to African safety, within the years to return. Nonetheless, what to look at for is whether or not the name for the inclusion of Africa as a everlasting member of the UN Safety Council will likely be achieved, notably as a method to finish the protracted lethal conflicts, political instability and underdevelopment in Africa.
How do you view the position of worldwide establishments in addressing safety challenges in Africa?
The position of worldwide establishments in addressing safety challenges in Africa is important to African stability and that of the worldwide order at massive. With the assist of the UN, the AU is chargeable for the upkeep of peace and safety, monitoring human rights and democracy, in addition to selling financial growth in conflict-affected zones on the continent. Nonetheless, for the final twenty years because the institution of the AU, it has made some optimistic progress within the upkeep of peace and safety throughout the continent by way of the creation of the African Standby Power (ASF) in 2005. For instance, after the transformation of the OAU into the AU in 2001, the AU has been chargeable for mediating varied internecine conflicts on the continent of Africa, towards the backdrop of the entrenchment of the Precept of the Accountability to Shield (R2P) by the United Nations in its Constitution in 2005. Moreover, the AU, below the auspices of the Peace and Safety Council (PSC), and the assist of the United Nations and different worldwide coalitions, efficiently fashioned and led the AU Missions in Burundi (2003) and Darfur (2004) and Somalia (2007). However, a few of the challenges going through the AU has been the failure of member states to talk with one voice in issues affecting the continent. The polarization among the many member states have hampered the Union in resolving many of the conflicts which can be at present occurring throughout the continent. As a continental group, the AU has been inefficient in condemning the extent of human rights abuses, militarization of governance, and different atrocities being carried out towards their residents. The inefficiency on the a part of the AU to uphold and promote democratic freedom and justice in Africa, as a part of the cardinal ideas of the UN, critically casts doubts on its potential to be admitted into the UN Safety Council. One other main problem going through the AU has been the dearth of funding to carry out its mandate. The group depends majorly on overseas monetary help for its operations. Nonetheless, reliance on overseas assist by the AU could be counterproductive. For instance, the latest pulse of overseas assist by the US to African nations, particularly because of the shift in overseas coverage, priorities, and alleged corruption, has led to a severe decline within the funding of vital areas akin to well being, humanitarian help, financial growth, and issues in regards to the potential of Africa to stay with out overseas assist. To beat this problem, Africa have to be able to struggle corruption and prioritize its sources for development and growth.
What’s an important piece of recommendation you would give to younger students of worldwide relations?
Each scholar in each career or self-discipline has an impetus which underpins and drives their pursuits. So, my recommendation to younger students within the subject of worldwide relations could be to review what pursuits and drives them essentially the most within the subject. At all times keep in mind that the world we stay in shouldn’t be static however modifications in accordance with human nature. Don’t pressure your concepts or opinions on one other particular person, however all the time current your case or arguments in an goal method to the surface world.
Additional Studying on E-Worldwide Relations
