(RNS) — Don’t imagine something you examine who’s going to be the subsequent pope — even what you learn on this column. Conclaves have a manner of peculiar us.
That is very true this day out, when the biggest variety of cardinals ever will likely be voting, and few of them know one another. The cardinals don’t even know what is going on. How may the media?
Most prognosticators, together with playing websites, are predicting that Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican secretary of state, would be the subsequent pope. I additionally imagine he has an excellent likelihood.
It isn’t uncommon for a Vatican secretary of state to be a papabile, the Italian phrase for somebody the cardinals are contemplating for pope. A vote for the secretary of state is a vote for continuity, since he has been an in depth collaborator with the earlier pope. However, those that didn’t agree along with his boss aren’t prone to vote for him.
Voting for Parolin can be voting for continuity in worldwide relations particularly, as that is his forte. On church points, he supported Pope Francis, however the cardinal electors can’t ensure if that was out of loyalty or conviction.
The Vatican secretary of state is just not solely accountable for international coverage, because the U.S. secretary of state is. He’s extra like a primary minister. He’s the No. 2 man within the Vatican.
Because of this, he bears some duty for the Vatican’s monetary issues. Parolin’s supporters might argue that he paid consideration to international coverage however left the Vatican Curia and its funds to the now disgraced Cardinal Angelo Becciu. That was an costly mistake.
Nor does Parolin have a charismatic character. Knowledgeable diplomat, he chooses his phrases rigorously, in contrast to the extra spontaneous Francis. Some cardinals will favor that, however will the folks prefer it?
If the cardinal electors need charisma, they must look to somebody like Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle or Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, the archbishop of Bologna. Each males are beneath 70 years of age, nonetheless, and their election may result in an extended papacy, which can make the cardinals suppose twice.
Previously, conclaves have led to surprises, as within the elections of Popes John XXIII, John Paul I, John Paul II and Francis. Few predicted these males would grow to be pope. However, Popes Pius XII, Paul VI and Benedict XVI had been positive bets.
I might argue that John XXIII, John Paul II and Francis had been surprises in different methods. They didn’t transform the sort of popes that many anticipated, together with the cardinals who voted for them.
John was imagined to be an interim, do-nothing pope, but he referred to as the Second Vatican Council. Huge shock.
John Paul II was thought by many who voted for him to be extra progressive than he turned out to be. Austrian Cardinal Franz König, a progressive, campaigned for his election however was dissatisfied by his papacy, which lower off theological dialogue and debate.
However, Francis didn’t transform the theological conservative many cardinals anticipated. They’d heard that he was essential of liberation theology and was not favored by the Jesuits, his personal order, which was thought of too liberal by some cardinals. He had additionally supported Benedict within the final conclave. His papacy was filled with surprises!
Papal elections so typically shock us as a result of the cardinals, out of loyalty and deference, don’t stray removed from the papal social gathering line whereas a pope is alive. Because of this, we’re by no means positive what they actually suppose.
As soon as the pope is useless, they’re not certain by loyalty. Neither is the person who turns into pope, who might then go his personal manner.
My recommendation is to attend till after the election and cheer the brand new pope, understanding it could be six months earlier than you realize what he’s actually like.
Above all, do not forget that all the pieces I write right here could also be fallacious.
