Could 3 can be a defining second for Australia because it holds the federal election that may decide whether or not Anthony Albanese and the Labor Occasion proceed to retain energy, or if Peter Dutton and the Liberal-Nationwide Coalition take over. Australia holds a particular place as ASEAN’s first-ever dialogue companion, making this election notably noteworthy for ASEAN international locations. When observing the Australian election, ASEAN international locations sometimes observe from afar, adhering to their precept of non-interference. Nonetheless, observing from afar doesn’t imply being with out sure expectations. Whatever the election’s end result, ASEAN ought to count on a extra progressive partnership with Australia, notably to make sure stability within the Indo-Pacific and resilience in opposition to world challenges.
Immediately, the world is dealing with 10% common tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. On prime of that, there are additionally the so-called US “reciprocal tariffs”, that are far increased – though these have been briefly paused for 90 days, apart from China. Talking of China, the world should deal with the dire penalties of the worsening US-China commerce warfare within the final couple of months. Because the starting of 2025, each international locations have imposed a sequence of escalating tariffs, together with the US’s 145% tariff on Chinese language items and China’s 125% tariff on American items. This case is prone to trigger financial uncertainty for ASEAN, a regional grouping composed of growing international locations that critically want stability to advertise their commerce and funding.
Malaysia, as ASEAN Chair this yr, has tried to steer a unified ASEAN response to this specific world scenario. This consists of the initiative to make a cellphone name with regional leaders from Brunei, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Singapore to coordinate a mutual response, instantly after Trump’s announcement of “reciprocal tariffs” on 5 April 2025. Malaysia goals to current a united regional entrance to make sure ASEAN’s collective voice is heard on the worldwide stage. Hopefully, this voice can even resonate with Australia.
In mild of this world financial problem, ASEAN international locations are possible to cut back their reliance on the US market and search to spice up commerce with different strategic companions. Australia should seize this shared urgent difficulty as a chance to strengthen its ties with ASEAN and diversify its markets additional. Final February, Australia ratified the upgraded ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Commerce Space settlement. Amongst others, this settlement goals to assist micro, small, and medium-sized companies profit from commerce inside ASEAN. This might function a major hope for ASEAN to anticipate and mitigate the potential impression of extended world financial crises.
Other than geographical options, Australia and ASEAN international locations stand aside of their histories, identities, demographics, and cultures. These variations naturally form their political priorities and the attitudes of their respective politicians, together with how they understand world politics and the Indo-Pacific. Whereas ASEAN locations dialogue mechanisms on the cornerstone of reaching consensus with out creating formal alliances, Australia has traditionally leaned towards alliances. It was a well-known quote from former Prime Minister Robert Menzies: “Our nice and highly effective buddies” that displays Australia’s alliance with the US, whereas nonetheless sustaining ties with Britain.
Nonetheless, these divergent approaches haven’t obstructed the ASEAN-Australia partnership. Even right now, sustaining stability within the Indo-Pacific should develop into extra essential amid the sweeping tariffs imposed by the US. Australia and ASEAN are conscious that they haven’t any selection however to make the very best of their variations. And that’s what they’ve performed up to now. Australia established a complete strategic partnership with ASEAN in 2021. ASEAN is a crucial buying and selling companion for Australia, with two-way commerce amounting to $192.9 billion within the 2023-2024 fiscal yr. The institution of the ASEAN-Australia Heart in Canberra final yr marked one other milestone, fostering connections amongst academics and college students throughout the area.
ASEAN understands that Australia’s Indo-Pacific technique typically focuses on counterbalancing China’s affect by strategic partnerships. In the meantime, ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) defines its personal technique. AOIP goals to foster a peaceable, steady, and affluent area with ASEAN at its core because the driving pressure. ASEAN avoids being drawn into the rivalry amongst nice powers. As an alternative, ASEAN welcomes all companions to contribute to regional peace and stability.
Navigating partnerships with ASEAN isn’t any easy job. Australia has lengthy been unsure in regards to the dynamic stance of ASEAN international locations towards China, however this dynamic is intrinsic to ASEAN’s nature. Subsequently, quite than fixating on ASEAN’s fluctuating relationship with China, Australia ought to give attention to fortifying its personal partnership with ASEAN. With China’s rising affect, ASEAN should assert its constructive stance towards Australia. On the identical time, incidents like the formation of AUKUS in 2021, which caught ASEAN nations without warning, should not be repeated.
Whereas Australia is entitled to affix “minilaterals”, sudden strikes are all the time unwelcome – even by Australia itself. Rumors suggesting that Russia was searching for to base navy plane in Indonesia apparently caught Australia without warning, even main Peter Dutton to make an inaccurate declare. Certainly, Indonesia has denied the rumors, nevertheless it serves as an vital lesson for Australia. ASEAN wants assurance that Australia is a real companion, not a proxy for nice powers. As former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull urged, Australia should “rise up for Australia” and strategy its relations with the US as transactionally because the US does with Australia.
In sum, ASEAN wants Australia as a lot as Australia wants ASEAN. The winner of the upcoming Australian election ought to keep away from Trump-like habits and as an alternative envision coexistence with ASEAN as shut neighbors, safeguarding regional stability. With out ASEAN, Australia dangers being left adrift within the Indo-Pacific.
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