The devastating civil warfare that engulfed Syria since 2011 has essentially reshaped the nation’s political panorama. Whereas army confrontations have now largely subsided, the frontlines have shifted from battlefields to backroom negotiations. This transition interval presents each alternatives and dangers for all actors concerned. For the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), the core demand stays unchanged: a federal Syria that recognises its pluralistic and decentralised governance mannequin.
Syria has a largely forgotten federal previous. Below the French Mandate, the nation was divided right into a sequence of autonomous entities often called the Levant States. These constructions mirrored the area’s ethnic, geographic and sectarian variety. This mannequin stood in direct distinction to the centralised Ba’athist system that later got here to outline post-independence Syria. Ba’athist centralism, framed as Arab ultra-nationalism, sought to impose a singular id on a essentially plural society. It succeeded in suppressing distinction, however not in eliminating it. The Arab Spring uncovered the fragility of this association. The Ba’ath system has collapsed, and Bashar al-Assad is now an asylum seeker in Moscow.
However the query now just isn’t merely what is going to substitute the outdated system. The actual query is whether or not the realities on the bottom will likely be taken under consideration in constructing a brand new Levant or whether or not the nation will repeat historical past by reproducing a poor imitation of the Ba’athist tragedy. All indicators recommend the latter though federalism is a should for way forward for Syria. On this context, the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) should urgently develop a transparent and strategic exit plan earlier than it’s structurally sidelined.
Within the wake of the October 7 battle, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), regardless of its jihadist legacy, superior quickly throughout Syria with little resistance. The group took benefit of the collapse of Iran’s regional axis and rising fatigue with Assad’s rule. It captured Damascus in a matter of days. Nonetheless, its momentum proved short-lived. Israeli airstrikes destroyed what remained of Syria’s army infrastructure. Sanctions continued to suffocate the financial system. In distinction, the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) endured as a functioning and autonomous entity. It administers areas that produce greater than half of Syria’s home income. Ruled by Kurdish management and grounded in gender equality and decentralisation, AANES presents a direct ideological problem to HTS. On the similar time, Alawite communities on the coast and Druze populations within the south started voicing calls for for autonomy.
HTS drafted an authoritarian structure and declared a closed and exclusionary authorities. Its abuses and crimes towards civilians and refusal to interact in pluralist politics triggered a wave of resistance together with the bloodbath towards Alawite civilians in Syrian coast. Israeli pro-Druze intervention and pro-Kurdish rhetoric elevated strain on Damascus. The newly fashioned Shara authorities rapidly understood that with no shift towards realist overseas coverage, its place would weaken. Western actors made it clear that sanctions would stay until HTS modified course. Even with help from extra autonomous actors like Russia, the Gulf or Turkey, Ahmed al-Shara wouldn’t have the ability to maintain sway in Syria.
AANES controls most of Syria’s oil and agricultural manufacturing, in addition to important water infrastructure. Damascus has no various income to exchange these areas. Regardless of this, AANES stays diplomatically sidelined. HTS, regardless of its report, continues to obtain extra diplomatic engagement because of direct help from a number of state actors. The important thing cause behind AANES’s isolation is Turkey’s continued objection. Ankara portrays AANES as an extension of the PKK and actively works to dam its recognition.
Turkey now seems to just accept that army operations will not be a viable long-term resolution. It has shifted focus to stopping AANES from changing into a part of the post-war state construction. As a substitute of direct confrontation, Turkey encourages the Syrian authorities to behave as a realistic worldwide participant whereas avoiding the formation of an inclusive home framework. This method pushes Damascus to current a rational entrance overseas whereas excluding Kurdish and different autonomous actors internally.
Indicators of this technique are already seen. The Shara authorities, as soon as outlined by its jihadist stance, seems to be recalibrating. Syria just lately arrested two members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad alleged to be concerned within the October 2023 assaults. Diplomacy mediated by Azerbaijan is exploring normalisation with Israel and Turkey. Azerbaijan’s state oil firm SOCAR has supplied to modernise Syrian oil fields. Syrian economists are reportedly partaking with the Worldwide Financial Fund. On the similar time, Turkey has introduced a diplomatic “warfare” concentrating on the YPG and Syria is anticipated to nominate a brand new overseas minister with Ba’ath-era credentials. Warming ties with Gulf international locations recommend that the Shara authorities desires to look pragmatic on the worldwide stage. Nonetheless, this repositioning has not been accompanied by inner reform. For AANES, this presents a harmful paradox. The regime could acquire legitimacy overseas whereas refusing to undertake inclusive politics at residence.
AANES faces a strategic dilemma. It’s economically indispensable and institutionally steady, but diplomatically weak. The worldwide system continues to be formed by pursuits slightly than legitimacy or contribution. With no clear exit technique that prioritises regional partnerships, worldwide visibility and institutional depth, AANES dangers being disregarded of the longer term Syrian order. It could proceed to bear the financial and administrative burden of the state when being marginalized and regularly lose its autonomy. SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi’s signing of a framework settlement with Ahmed al-Shara marks a step towards recognition of the AANES, however the stability of energy on this relationship will finally be formed by diplomatic leverage. What has been gained via sacrifice can nonetheless be misplaced with no clear and proactive technique.
The latest remarks of Elham Ahmed spotlight this problem from a realist perspective. “We see that strictly centralised techniques don’t resolve issues however deepen them” she stated. “Syria should not return to the way it was earlier than 2011. It have to be decentralised and provides the rights of all Syrian parts.” She added “Our present plan is to protect what exists and we’ll attempt to be extra concerned inside Syria and take part in each course of.” These feedback replicate the core dilemma dealing with AANES. Time is ticking whereas the Shara authorities is actively lobbying to achieve legitimacy in worldwide circles and AANES ought to current itself as a global actor earlier than it’s too late.
By means of an instance, within the early Nineteen Nineties, as Yugoslavia disintegrated into violence, Slovenia took a unique path. It was the smallest of the republics, but in addition probably the most economically built-in with Western Europe. In contrast to Bosnia or Kosovo, Slovenia didn’t await permission from the federal centre. It recognised that the system was collapsing and acted accordingly. By constructing institutional capability, aligning with European markets and projecting a realistic overseas coverage, it managed to exit the federation with minimal battle and acquire early worldwide recognition. This didn’t make it stronger militarily, nevertheless it gave Slovenia what others within the area lacked: a strategic exit from chaos.
The AANES now faces the same resolution. It’s structurally central to Syria’s financial system but politically excluded. It possesses functioning governance establishments, a pluralist administrative mannequin and a level of legitimacy within the areas it controls. But when it doesn’t outline its personal future, others will. The Syrian regime, with Turkish help, is actively shaping a post-war order that isolates AANES whereas benefitting from the steadiness it generates. If AANES stays reactive, it dangers changing into an administrative device with out political company.
An exit technique for AANES doesn’t imply secession. It means investing in long-term survival via severe capability constructing and proactive diplomacy. AANES should deepen ties with the Kurdistan Regional Authorities in Iraq, set up modest however practical cooperation with Israel, Jordan and the Gulf, present its willingness to take part regional integration tasks like Abraham Accords and IMEC, create formal mechanisms of worldwide outreach. Past army deterrence, its biggest asset must be institutional legitimacy. It should showcase itself as a constructive actor able to regional integration, coordination and wealth.
Capability constructing should transcend native councils. It should embody financial transparency, budgetary techniques, training and diplomatic literacy. AANES ought to start presenting itself not simply as a short lived authority born of battle, however as a long-term administrative various grounded in regional stability of Levant. This requires energetic engagement with media, assume tanks, analysis establishments and diaspora networks. AANES should develop into seen, not simply practical. The window is slim. In contrast to Slovenia, AANES doesn’t have entry to European establishments or quick diplomatic recognition. However it has leverage, standard legitimacy and administrative coherence. It can’t afford to attend for the world to note. It should form its personal future whereas there’s nonetheless house to take action.
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