What’s Iran’s nuclear programme and what do the US and Israel need?

US and Iranian officers have held oblique talks in Oman’s capital, Muscat, to attempt to attain a brand new deal over Iran’s controversial nuclear programme.

Donald Trump pulled the US out of a earlier nuclear settlement between Iran and world powers in 2018, and reinstated financial sanctions, angering Iran.

The US president has warned of navy motion if the talks don’t succeed.

Iran says its nuclear programme is for civilian functions solely.

It insists it’s not attempting to develop nuclear weapons, however many international locations – in addition to the worldwide nuclear watchdog, the Worldwide Atomic Vitality Company (IAEA) – usually are not satisfied.

Suspicions about Iran’s intentions arose when the nation was discovered to have secret nuclear amenities in 2002.

This broke an settlement known as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which Iran and virtually all different international locations have signed.

The NPT lets international locations use non-military nuclear expertise – corresponding to for medication, agriculture and vitality – however doesn’t allow the event of nuclear weapons.

Because the US pulled out of the present nuclear deal – often called the Joint Complete Plan of Motion or JCPOA – in 2018, Iran has breached key commitments, in retaliation for the choice to reinstate sanctions.

It has put in 1000’s of superior centrifuges (purification machines) to complement uranium, one thing which was banned by the JCPOA.

Nuclear weapons require uranium which has been enriched to 90% purity. Underneath the JCPOA, Iran was solely allowed to own as much as 300kg (600lb) of uranium enriched to three.67% – enough for civilian nuclear energy and analysis functions however not nuclear bombs.

However by March 2025, the IAEA mentioned Iran had about 275kg of uranium which it had enriched to 60% purity. That is sufficient to theoretically make about half a dozen weapons, ought to Iran additional enrich the uranium.

US officers have mentioned they imagine Iran may flip that uranium into sufficient weapons-grade materials for one bomb in as little as every week. Nevertheless, they’ve additionally mentioned it will take Iran between a 12 months to 18 months to construct a nuclear weapon. Some consultants say a “crude” machine may very well be inbuilt six months or much less.

The UN, US and EU imposed intensive financial sanctions on Iran from 2010, over suspicions that its nuclear programme was getting used to develop a bomb.

The sanctions stopped Iran from promoting oil on worldwide markets and froze $100bn (£77bn) of the nation’s overseas belongings. Its economic system plunged into recession and the worth of its foreign money fell to report lows, which in flip induced inflation to soar.

In 2015, Iran and 6 world powers – the US, China, France, Russia, Germany and the UK – agreed to the JCPOA after years of negotiations.

In addition to limiting what Iran was permitted to do with its nuclear programme, it allowed the IAEA to entry all of Iran’s nuclear amenities and to hold out inspections of suspect websites.

In return, the powers agreed to carry the sanctions.

The JCPOA was set to last as long as 15 years, after which the restrictions would expire.

When Donald Trump took workplace in 2018, he eliminated the US – which had been a key pillar of the settlement.

He mentioned it was a “unhealthy deal” as a result of it was not everlasting and didn’t tackle Iran’s ballistic missile programme, amongst different issues. Trump re-imposed US sanctions as a part of a “most strain” marketing campaign to compel Iran to barter a brand new and expanded settlement.

Trump’s determination was influenced by America’s regional allies who had been against the deal, mainly Israel.

Israel claimed that Iran was nonetheless pursuing a covert nuclear programme, and warned that Iran would use billions of {dollars} in sanctions reduction to strengthen its navy actions.

Trump’s announcement regarding talks with Iran appeared to take Israel unexpectedly. He had lengthy mentioned he would make a “higher” deal than the JCPOA, although up until now Iran has rejected renegotiating the settlement.

Trump has beforehand warned that if Iran didn’t make a brand new deal “there shall be bombing”.

His nationwide safety adviser Mike Waltz has mentioned that Trump needs the “full dismantlement” of Iran’s nuclear programme, including: “That is enrichment, that’s weaponisation, and that’s its strategic missile programme.”

Iran hopes a deal to restrict, however not dismantle, its nuclear programme in trade for sanctions reduction.

“Our intention is to achieve a good and honourable settlement from an equal place,” Iranian Overseas Minister Abbas mentioned.

Though Trump had mentioned there could be “direct talks”, Araghchi mentioned the negotiations in Oman had been oblique, with solely a short dialog between him and US envoy Steve Witkoff going down as they had been leaving.

Araghchi mentioned Iran was prepared to interact with the US, however that Trump should first agree there could be no “navy choice”.

After Trump’s announcement, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu mentioned the one acceptable deal would contain Iran agreeing to eradicate its nuclear programme. He mentioned that meant: “We go in, blow up the amenities, and dismantle all of the gear, below American supervision and execution.”

Israel’s largest worry shall be that Trump would possibly settle for a compromise wanting Iran’s full capitulation which he may current as a diplomatic win.

Israel, which has not signed the NPT, is assumed to have nuclear weapons, one thing it neither confirms nor denies. It believes a nuclear-armed Iran, which doesn’t settle for Israel’s proper to exist, would pose a considerable risk.

Each the US and Israel have the navy capabilities to bomb Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, however such an operation could be complicated and dangerous, with an unsure end result.

Key nuclear websites are buried deep underground, which means solely probably the most highly effective bunker-busting bombs may presumably attain them. Whereas the US possesses these bombs, Israel will not be recognized to.

Iran would virtually definitely defend itself, which may embrace attacking US belongings within the area, and firing missiles at Israel.

For an operation of this type, the US would probably want to make use of its bases within the Gulf, in addition to plane carriers.

However international locations like Qatar, which hosts the largest US airbase, may not agree to assist it assault Iran, fearing retaliation.