New Delhi, India – Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi landed in Washington late on Wednesday evening and is scheduled to satisfy United States President Donald Trump on Thursday on the White Home.
Whereas the 2 leaders have usually described one another as buddies previously, and have even held joint political rallies collectively, Modi’s go to comes at a time when the connection is being examined by Trump’s tariff threats and deportation realities.
“I look ahead to assembly my good friend, President Trump,” Modi stated in a departing message, including that he has a “very heat recollection of working collectively in [Trump’s] first time period”.
Trump had introduced Modi’s go to to the US after their phone dialog on January 27, per week after he was sworn into workplace for his second time period. After their name, Trump additionally stated that he believed Modi would do “what is true” on undocumented Indian migrants within the US.
However pleasing each Trump and the Indian public received’t be straightforward for Modi.
Right here’s what’s at stake for India, and what Modi would possibly convey with him to the assembly with Trump to attempt to placate the US president.
What’s at stake for India?
The US is India’s largest export vacation spot and ranks amongst its high two commerce companions in a number of sectors, together with expertise, commerce, defence and power. The 2-way commerce between the US and India touched an all-time excessive of $118bn in 2023-24.
Bilateral ties have additionally strengthened within the final three many years because the US has more and more centered on countering the rise of a shared rival – China.
However regardless of that convergence, Trump has made clear – as he had with a number of US allies – that he has deep variations too with India.
Throughout his marketing campaign for the 2024 election, Trump labelled India a “very massive abuser” of commerce and threatened tariffs. Since being elected, he pushed New Delhi to purchase extra US-made safety tools as a method to cut back the imbalance of their commerce. In 2024, the commerce surplus stood at $45.6bn, in favour of India, based on US authorities information.
Trump’s re-election marketing campaign additionally highlighted undocumented immigration and unlawful settlement within the US. As of 2022, India ranked third, after Mexico and El Salvador, amongst international locations with the most important variety of undocumented immigrants – 725,000 – dwelling within the nation.
And on Wednesday final week, a US army aircraft touched down in Amritsar, a metropolis in northern India, carrying 104 Indian deportees, their arms and legs cuffed. Within the farthest such journey undertaken by a US army plane, the “mistreatment” of deportees prompted a serious outrage, together with protests by the opposition, in India.
“India has at all times celebrated the success of Indians within the US, which suggests Indian People have been a really seen neighborhood in India’s consciousness,” stated Swaran Singh, professor on the centre of worldwide politics at Delhi’s prestigious Jawaharlal Nehru College. Indian overseas coverage too, below Modi, has particularly celebrated nonresident Indians, he stated. “These dynamics make the mistreatment of Indian deportees a unstable and inflammable subject in bilateral ties,” Singh stated.
Jon Danilowicz, a retired diplomat who served on the US Division of State, stated that Modi’s assembly with Trump “is principally a chance for the Indian PM to current his facet of the story to make New Delhi’s case”.
However what might Modi supply to handle the Trump menace on tariffs and deportation?
What’s Modi’s doubtless recreation plan on deportation?
Singh famous the Indian authorities’s muted official response to the outrage over photographs of residents coming back from the US in cuffs.
That, he recommended, was a deliberate choice.
“Trump has some technique in his insanity. He makes use of whimsical statements to create most strain,” stated Singh. “It’s not a very good sense to then publicly confront him [on contentious issues].”
As an alternative, after an uproar within the parliament, India’s overseas minister, S Jaishankar, stated that the usage of restraints was a part of the US’s deportation coverage, including that “it’s the obligation of all international locations to take again their nationals if they’re discovered to be dwelling illegally overseas”.
“Our focus needs to be on a robust crackdown on the unlawful migration business whereas taking steps to ease visas for professional travellers,” stated Jaishankar.
How would possibly Modi counter Trump on tariffs?
Trump has promised to announce additional tariffs later this week, and although he hasn’t specified which international locations or sectors is perhaps focused, India is anticipated to be affected.
On Wednesday, White Home Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt stated that she anticipated these reciprocal tariffs – in opposition to international locations that Trump believes impose unfair restrictions on US imports – to be introduced earlier than the US president meets Modi.
Trump has already imposed a ten p.c tariff on all Chinese language imports on high of present tariffs and has launched a 25 p.c tariff on all metal and aluminium imports.
However when Modi meets Trump, the Indian PM might level to current unilateral steps that India has taken to decrease the limitations to entry for US items, say analysts.
Historically, India, an rising financial system, has had excessive tariffs in place for a number of imported merchandise that it feared might harm its home business and farm sector. Nevertheless, in its newest finances, introduced on February 1, the Modi authorities slashed tariffs and prevented any protectionist bulletins.
Such steps would possibly “preempt some motion of the US administration”, stated Danilowicz.
India, in any case, is accustomed to the dangers of a tariff struggle with the US. In 2018, Trump had imposed tariffs of 25 p.c on $761m of metal and 10 p.c on $382m of aluminium imported from India, which retaliated by including customs duties to a minimum of 28 US merchandise. After years of commerce tensions, in 2023, a decision was introduced throughout a Modi go to to Washington.
Modi will wish to keep away from a repeat.
“India has to date escaped the direct tariff warmth by the brand new Trump administration and that could be a optimistic signal,” stated Biswajit Dhar, a distinguished professor on the Council for Social Growth in New Delhi.
Dhar, a global commerce knowledgeable, advised Al Jazeera that Modi wants to make use of this assembly “to persuade Trump that India performs a good recreation vis-a-vis commerce and, subsequently, India needs to be handled otherwise.”
“If China is slapped with these sorts of tariffs, then the identical factor shouldn’t occur to India,” Dhar stated, including that the “personalised background” to the duo’s relationship ought to permit area to accommodate these discussions. “At least, India wouldn’t like itself to be clubbed together with China.”
In spite of everything, China – or somewhat the shared suspicion of Beijing’s plans for the Asia Pacific area – is the most important glue that holds the India-US relationship collectively.
‘Dedication to QUAD’
Modi is just the fourth world chief to satisfy Trump since his re-election, after conflict-engaged Israel, Jordan and Japan, its ally within the Asia Pacific. International coverage specialists advised Al Jazeera that being invited this early in Trump’s time period reveals how essential the US president considers ties with India.
China is an enormous a part of that.
A day after Trump was sworn in because the forty seventh US president, his newly appointed secretary of state, Marco Rubio, held a gathering with fellow overseas ministers of India, Australia and Japan. The 4 nations – with a collective inhabitants of practically two billion individuals and representing greater than a 3rd of worldwide gross home produce (GDP) – kind the Quad, a strategic discussion board centered on the Asia Pacific area.
The Modi-Trump telephone name on January 27 additionally “emphasised their dedication to advance the US-India strategic partnership and the Indo-Pacific Quad partnership”, a US authorities assertion after their dialog stated.
“The Trump administration has clearly signalled that the Indo-Pacific area is a precedence. And that’s clearly pushed by the competitors with China,” stated Danilowicz, the previous US diplomat.
However there’s one other nation that Trump and the US wish to goal – and there, New Delhi and Washington differ.
The Iran equation
A serious storm is brewing between India and the US over Iran, stated Michael Kugelman, the director of the South Asia Institute on the Wilson Middle, a Washington, DC-based suppose tank.
On the centre of tensions is the port of Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman, the place India has made a multimillion-dollar funding within the hopes of creating a strategically positioned maritime facility. The port permits India to ship meals, assist and different commodities to landlocked Afghanistan and Central Asia through Iran, bypassing Pakistan, New Delhi’s archrival.
India had secured a sanctions waiver from the US through the first Trump administration for work associated to Chabahar.
However in a nationwide safety presidential memorandum that Trump signed on February 4, he requested US Secretary of State Rubio to “modify or rescind sanctions waivers, notably those who present Iran any diploma of financial or monetary aid, together with these associated to Iran’s Chabahar port challenge”.
“Trump’s Iran coverage might nicely change into a flashpoint within the US-India relationship and might have a deleterious affect,” Kugelman advised Al Jazeera, including that Trump’s “maximalist place in direction of Iran” presents a fragile diplomatic scenario for India.
‘Bonhomie’ and friction
Different niggles in ties – like allegations by US prosecutors that India’s spy company tried to assassinate an American citizen, Sikh separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun; or the US indictment of billionaire Gautam Adani over bribery prices – will proceed to shadow bilateral ties, famous Kugelman.
“These points is not going to essentially come up within the speedy future, or at this assembly, however they aren’t going away anytime quickly,” stated Kugelman. “Given Trump’s maximalist place on tariffs, he’s going to attempt to do every part to incentivise international locations to convey down and cut back tariffs.”
Indian diplomats and worldwide overseas coverage specialists have stated Modi’s celebrated ‘bromance’ equation with Trump offers India an edge on the desk with different international locations.
Nevertheless, it doesn’t essentially translate into “a greater deal”, stated Danilowicz, the previous US diplomat.
“A great equation can get India a faster assembly or face time with Trump, not a deal,” he stated, including that New Delhi wants to arrange to take care of frictions. “It could be a mistake for India, or any nation, to place an excessive amount of emphasis on a private relationship with Trump and neglect that there are a lot of different inputs into the US overseas policy-making course of, together with the Congress.”
