MEXICO, Jan 31 (IPS) – This January, Mexico has launched into a brand new industrial path for the following six years, the place the viability of its power part faces elementary challenges that put it in danger.
Vitality shortage is among the many predominant obstacles confronted by the financial program of President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has been in workplace since October.
Researcher Luca Ferrari from the Geosciences Heart of the general public Nationwide Autonomous College of Mexico (UNAM) recognized restricted monetary sources and power provide as obstacles to progress.
“There are budgetary and power amount constraints. Elevated industrialization for export will run into power shortages or very restricted availability, as a consequence of obligatory investments and the place they are going to come from. We’re in a really precarious power scenario as a result of we’re depending on fossil fuels and are power poor,” he advised IPS.
Launched on January 13 beneath the overall title of the Nationwide Industrialization and Shared Prosperity Technique, Plan Mexico (PM) consists of 10 targets, 13 targets, 2,000 initiatives, and a complete deliberate funding of US$277 billion, which might create 1.5 million new jobs in manufacturing and different sectors.
Among the many plan’s investments, that are seen internally as a partial response to the arrival of ultra-conservative Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, is an funding by the state-owned Federal Electrical energy Commissionx (CFE) of US$23.4 billion.
Of this, US$12.3 billion will likely be allotted to era, US$7.5 billion to transmission infrastructure, and US$3.6 billion to decentralized photovoltaic manufacturing in houses.
Moreover, the federal government is getting ready guidelines for the non-public sector’s renewed participation in electrical energy era, a modality suspended since 2018 to favor CFE and likewise the state-owned Mexican Petroleum (Pemex).
This return would come with, amongst different measures, decrease power buy prices for the electrical monopoly and using storage batteries to keep up grid stability.
Consequently, the plan would add 21,893 megawatts (MW) to the nationwide power matrix, aiming to achieve a 37.8% of fresh power, up from the present 22.5%. By regulation, CFE controls 54% of the electrical energy market, with the remaining being in non-public palms.
A minimum of 17 transmission and distribution initiatives are beneath research for implementation at an undetermined time, however their growth can be unbiased of the brand new PM, which does incorporate a number of initiatives already underway, in addition to new ones.
With a present put in capability of 89,000 MW, in 2024 roughly 63% of electrical energy era relied on fossil fuel, adopted by typical thermoelectricity (6.8%), hydroelectricity (5.9%), wind power (5.8%), photo voltaic photovoltaic (5.2%), nuclear (3%), and geothermal (1%).
Renewable sources have an put in capability of 33,517 MW however solely contribute 22.5% of electrical energy.
In December 2023, through the annual local weather summit in Dubai, Mexico joined the International Dedication on Renewables and Vitality Effectivity, which goals to triple various put in capability and double the power effectivity fee by 2030. Thus, the PM would fall wanting the clear era goal.
Gasify, child, gasify
Since December 2018, when Sheinbaum’s predecessor and mentor left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador took workplace as president, Mexico has pursued the up to now unattained aim of power sovereignty, one in every of whose results has been the halt of the transition to much less polluting fuels.
Sheinbaum’s new bundle of initiatives continues this mannequin but in addition deviates from its extremes, in what looks like the resurrection of the much-needed power transition, in a technique marked by obvious contradictions.
For Carlos Asunsolo, supervisor of Analysis and Public Coverage on the non-governmental Mexican Heart for Environmental Legislation (Cemda), Plan Mexico lacks particular particulars, such because the pathways to attain the targets.
“These are remoted initiatives that could be attention-grabbing. It’s a assertion of intentions, however it needs to be learn in gentle of different public coverage devices, equivalent to local weather and transition, together with the necessity to align with a complete power coverage,” he analyzed for IPS.
The knowledgeable cited considerations about undertaking execution situations, their sort, human rights ensures, and transparency.
One of many pillars of PM is selling the relocation (nearshoring) of corporations in sectors equivalent to electronics, excessive expertise, and the automotive business. That is as a result of alteration of worldwide maritime transport routes, the repercussions of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the commerce dispute between the USA and China.
This part additionally wants power and initiatives progress within the building of 100 industrial parks, together with 12 within the Interoceanic Hall of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (CIIT), a megaproject already underway beneath the accountability of the Ministry of the Navy.
This hall within the southeast of the nation is likely one of the three most necessary legacies of the present authorities, together with the Maya Practice within the southeastern Yucatán Peninsula and the Olmeca refinery within the state of Tabasco, additionally within the southeast. All three are built-in into the brand new PM.
The CIIT entails the development and modernization of three rail routes and three ports between the Pacific coast and the Atlantic Gulf of Mexico.
However these amenities, which search regional growth within the southeast and the substitution of imports from Asia, require plenty of power. Current and deliberate renewable era wouldn’t be sufficient on this space, which might lead Mexico to deepen its dependence on fuel imported from the USA.
Since 2010, the northern neighbor has despatched greater than 18 billion cubic ft (ft3) of fuel to Mexico through pipelines. In 2023, Mexico consumed 8.514 billion ft3 day by day, of which it imported 6.141 billion from the USA, making it the provider of 72% of all its fuel.
Moreover, the López Obrador administration promoted the Sonora Sustainable Vitality Plan, which incorporates photovoltaic power, lithium exploitation, and electrical automobile manufacturing within the northern state of Sonora, and which is now included into Sheinbaum’s PM.
Considered one of its parts is the Puerto Peñasco photovoltaic plant in Sonora, whose first part of 120 MW has been operational since 2023. When accomplished in 2026, it would present 1,000 MW, with a complete funding of $1.6 billion.
For Ferrari, the UNAM researcher, the one risk for extra power to maintain the enterprise promise is fuel.
“We’re already in a ridiculously dependent scenario. In the USA, manufacturing has stabilized over the previous yr, and it’s more likely to fall within the coming years. Gasoline supply to Mexico will not be assured,” he predicted.
In the meantime, specialist Asunsolo considers it important to query for whom and for what extra power is being generated, the scale of the initiatives, and the fueling of consumption, at a time when the local weather disaster is tightening its grip on very susceptible locations like Mexico.
“There’s a clear guess for CFE, by means of fuel, and Pemex, by means of hydrocarbons, to be the primary power coverage. We’re solely swapping one drawback for an additional with the change of supply. If it doesn’t translate into a discount of hydrocarbons, solely era capability is elevated. There’s a complicated message,” emphasised the Cemda knowledgeable.
Because it progresses, the PM is not going to solely need to face power obstacles, based on analysts, however may also need to navigate the rising water deficit.
Northern Mexico and elements of the middle, south, and southeast have been experiencing some extent of drought by January 15, elevating questions on water availability for the big initiatives outlined within the new industrial plan.
© Inter Press Service (2025) — All Rights ReservedUnique supply: Inter Press Service
