This vacation season, Syria has extra cause to rejoice than ever. An alliance of armed teams, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), introduced an finish to the Syrian regime in a cold marketing campaign that lasted roughly 10 days. Ever since, Syrians from all walks of life, each at dwelling and in exile, are rejoicing over the autumn of the Assad dynasty. This monumental occasion looks like a present from heaven, bringing hope, but in addition uncertainty and apprehension. The worldwide neighborhood ought to seize this chance to help Syria’s restoration. Alongside growing humanitarian assist and supporting reconstruction efforts, lifting sanctions and sanctions aid are essential at this juncture.
Amid the nationwide euphoria, tempered by the grim photographs rising from the tyrant’s dungeons, the agony of the final 13 years is taking a backseat to optimism and celebration. Nevertheless, the festive wave sweeping throughout the nation doesn’t change the tough actuality: Syria lies in ruins. The human struggling made Syria at one level one in every of the worst humanitarian crises since World Struggle II. For the reason that battle started, the nation has witnessed unprecedented destruction of its infrastructure, human capital, and economic system. Whereas the Assad regime’s tyranny and corrupt insurance policies are largely guilty, internationally coordinated financial warfare within the type of sanctions has additionally performed a big function.
When the battle started in 2011, Syria was hit with a number of rounds of (western) sanctions. By 2024, Syria had turn into the world’s third most sanctioned nation, following Russia and Iran. The US sanctions advanced right into a whole commerce embargo, whereas the EU imposed unprecedented sanctions within the bloc’s historical past on the time of their imposition. The Arab league and different entities and international locations adopted go well with. These measures collectively fashioned one of many ‘strictest and most complicated collective regimes in current historical past’ or one of many ‘most intricate and far-reaching sanctions regimes ever imposed.’ Though the sanctions embody humanitarian exemptions, these have had restricted affect and haven’t achieved their supposed targets. The scenario has been additional difficult by the presence of terrorist organizations within the nation, that are topic to UNSC resolutions.
Whereas the effectiveness of sanctions and their function within the regime’s downfall can be debated for years, one factor is evident: sanctions have imposed vital prices and detrimental results on civilians. As argued earlier, sanctions have been a type of violence within the Syrian context. They’ve negatively impacted meals safety, agriculture, humanitarian response, and entry to well being care, drugs, and water, amongst others. In the course of the COVID-19 outbreak and the aftermath of the 2023 earthquake, sanctions hindered the work of first responders and life-saving operations. Politically, sanctions debilitated the state coffers, empowered the kleptocratic clique round Assad whereas wreaking havoc on small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and impoverishing strange Syrians.
Regardless of their hurt, sanctions have been justified as instruments to attenuate civilian hurt and promote political transition. Policymakers argued that sanctions have been a response to the Syrian authorities’s repression of civilians in the course of the rebellion, a punishment for human rights abuses, and a way to deprive the federal government of sources to inflict violence. With the autumn of the Assad household, these justifications now not maintain. Whereas Assad and his clique should stay on sanction lists, sectoral sanctions focusing on the Syrian banking and vitality methods, in addition to reconstruction efforts, amongst others, should be eased and lifted instantly. Failure to behave on this will result in dire penalties and delays may very well be detrimental to peace, stability, and the humanitarian scenario in Syria with a lot of classes to study from international locations equivalent to Colombia, Sudan and Afghanistan.
The primary problem in Syria post-Assad could come up quickly when the nation must import wheat to feed its individuals. Till just lately, Russia offered Syria with the grain it wanted, however that is now not the case and though Ukraine has supplied to fill within the void – a lot of ambiguity stay on how this may materialize. One other problem pertains to importing gas, which is required to generate electrical energy, run bakeries and head courses in faculties. Beforehand, Iran was Syria’s gas provider, however that’s now not the case. Beneath the present sanction regimes, and as proven in earlier analysis, it’s just about unimaginable to acquire these items by worldwide tenders, which spotlight the necessity to finish the complicated net of sanctions, export controls, and different complete authorized and financial measures blankets that focus on the nation, and which current an array of significant authorized and coverage impediments to engagement with post-Assad Syria if left unaddressed.
Opponents would possibly argue that Syria’s new rulers – HTS, a closely sanctioned terrorist group, are to not be trusted and that lifting / easing sanctions must be contingent on their cooperation with the internationally acknowledged opposition. There may be benefit to the argument and the creator by no means harper any (secret) sympathy for the brand new rulers in Syria. HTS, a former al-Qaeda affiliate led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, higher often called ‘Abu Muhammad al-Julani,’ have been confined to the Idlib area in northwestern Syria till finish of November, the place group dominated by the HTS-controlled Syrian Salvation Authorities (SSG).
Whereas HTS’s previous report and affiliations are a authentic trigger for concern, it shouldn’t be an excuse to take care of sanctions on Syria. Years in the past, HTS renounced its hyperlinks with al-Qaeda and destined itself from latter’s mission focusing as an alternative on Syria. These days, HTS has taken a practical strategy, sending constructive alerts to each Syrians and the worldwide neighborhood. Given its pivotal function in current occasions and its dominance over different opposition teams, HTS has assumed the accountability of forming a brand new authorities in Damascus.
A transitional authorities in a caretaker capability headed by SSG Muhammad al-Bashir was just lately appointed and is anticipated to final till a brand new authorities is established in March 2025. The group has issued amnesties to conscripted troopers, requested state staff to return to work, and reached out to international entities, together with embassies, the UN, and worldwide humanitarian NGOs. Acts of revenge towards former regime associates have been uncommon, and the group has maintained order throughout the nation, with few exceptions. Their message has been clear: Syria belongs to all Syrians, and the plan is to determine an inclusive authorities. Former regime associates want solely fear if they’ve blood on their fingers. Solely time will inform, however these steps have already allowed life in Syria to return to a point of normalcy, with companies, NGOs, and embassies (contemplating) reopening their doorways.
Taking into account the constructive alerts from Damascus, a greater strategy could be to acknowledge considerations about Syria’s new rulers, monitor their dedication to the inclusivity of the political processes and the Syrian individuals’s aspirations, and act provided that they deviate. It’s unjust to maintain Syrians imprisoned by sanctions on account of fears of HTS. These are perilous and pivotal instances for Syria’s 16.7 million individuals, lots of whom want humanitarian help – the very best quantity for the reason that disaster started in 2011. Nothing, together with sanctions, ought to hinder Syria’s restoration and the political calculus of worldwide actors shouldn’t stand in the best way.
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