In these first days of what’s being hailed as a “new period” in Syria, the authorities now controlling Damascus are sending blended indicators. On one hand, they’re voicing their dedication to preserving Syria’s state establishments, and respecting the variety of its inhabitants. Alternatively, nevertheless, they’re signalling an intention to monopolise the extremely delicate means of political transition, and consequently state energy.
The trail they ultimately select to comply with will decide whether or not the errors and miscalculations that devastated not solely al-Assad’s Syria but in addition Iraq and Lebanon can be repeated right here on this “new period”.
Earlier than Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) forces beneath the command of Basic Ahmed al-Sharaa, AKA Abu Mohammed al-Julani, entered Damascus on December 8, they pledged to take care of the formal construction of the nation’s establishments. Former Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali formally remained in workplace till December 10 and performed no less than a beauty function within the handover to Mohammed al-Bashir, the transitional prime minister who is ready to serve on this function till March.
Shortly earlier than this, the HTA forces additionally introduced a basic amnesty for troopers of the Syrian military, signalling their intention to protect the common navy, which is a central pillar of the state.
Preserving the construction and unity of the navy establishment is essential to stopping state collapse throughout a political transition. We now have seen the disastrous penalties of failing to take action in Iraq, in 2003. In actual fact, Iraq continues to be struggling the implications of this grave mistake at this time, greater than 20 years after the destruction of its navy organ through the invasion.
The HTA authorities have additionally demonstrated no curiosity, no less than up to now, in initiating an intense de-Baatification course of akin to the one which hollowed out all of Iraq’s establishments and destabilised the nation for many years after the autumn of Saddam. For all intents and functions, it seems to be like the brand new authorities aren’t planning to focus on the Baath Celebration, which has been in energy in Damascus since 1963, as an establishment. The management of the previous single get together introduced a suspension of actions, however not their cessation. The get together’s web site continues to be operational – that includes a photograph of Bashar al-Assad no much less – and its central and native places of work haven’t been systematically attacked, as one may need anticipated within the aftermath of regime change.
In different constructive indicators, Interim Prime Minister al-Bashir declared that the incoming authorities intends to dissolve the oppressive safety businesses that, for the reason that Sixties, have terrorised tens of millions of Syrians. He introduced plans to repeal the so-called “anti-terrorism legal guidelines,” which got here into impact in 2012 as a revamped model of particular legal guidelines that, for greater than 50 years, legitimised navy tribunals concentrating on tons of of 1000’s of activists and dissidents.
These are undeniably constructive steps, lots of which mirror a want to construct a brand new Syria with out dismantling the core parts that make doable its survival as a state. The interactions of the incoming authorities with residents on the municipality stage, which have up to now marked by an emphasis on civil – not navy – relations additionally sign a constructive method to governance.
Nevertheless, all these promising indicators are considerably overshadowed by strikes and statements by the incoming authorities that carry echoes of Syria’s authoritarian previous, which can lead the nation to repeat the errors its neighbours made throughout their very own political transitions.
HTS chief al-Sharaa, for instance, introduced the appointment of al-Bashir, who beforehand led the so-called Salvation Authorities of Idlib, as prime minister with out consulting any forces outdoors of the group. This appointment, made unilaterally and primarily based solely on in-group ties, has made folks fear the dysfunctional energy mechanisms of al-Assad’s Syria could proceed into the brand new period.
One other putting improvement was the choice to show the HTS flag – that includes the Islamic occupation of religion (shahada) in black on a white background – through the first assembly of the brand new authorities, held within the prime minister’s workplace. To many, this was harking back to how, till a number of days in the past, the Syrian tricolour was all the time accompanied by the banner of al-Assad’s Baath Celebration.
Much less shocking, however no much less important, has been the implicit contradiction between the brand new authorities’ media declarations concerning the inclusivity of their state-building mission and their silence concerning the inclusion of Kurdish-Syrian communities. Al-Sharaa and his internal circle seem unwilling to embrace Kurds and invite them to participate on this nationwide mission whereas delicate negotiations over energy balances alongside the Euphrates are beneath method between Turkiye, which helps HTS, and the US, which maintains a navy presence in Kurdish-controlled areas. Moreover, opening as much as the Kurds may threat antagonising Turkiye, whom the brand new leaders in Damascus doubtless see as essential to sustaining the help of if their fledging governance mission is to succeed.
Alternatively, the brand new rulers of Damascus may have extra forcefully condemned the de facto annexations carried out by Israel to the southwest of Damascus, in addition to the unprecedented sequence of Israeli air strikes on the installations of the Syrian navy – the identical military that al-Sharaa claims to wish to shield from post-Assad collapse. The close to silence from al-Sharaa and his new prime minister on relations with Israel has raised eyebrows amongst many Syrians. Whereas undoubtedly relieved by the “liberation” after half a century, Syrians stay deeply connected to the rules of nationwide defence, in addition to the preservation of Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The navy leaders who’ve stuffed the vacuum left by the Assad regime haven’t but given a transparent indication concerning the trajectory of the transition they’re overseeing. Nor have they acknowledged the only real roadmap at the moment on the desk of worldwide negotiations: UN Decision 2254 of 2015. This doc outlines the trail in the direction of an orderly transition, with two overarching priorities: safeguarding the state, distinct from the regime, and averting additional bloodshed. The urgency of those priorities is underscored by troubling, although maybe inevitable, episodes of score-settling which have emerged within the streets and squares of varied Syrian cities after many years of systemic violence inflicted by the regime.
These rules are explicitly enshrined in UN Decision 2254. Though the decision was crafted in a political and navy context vastly completely different from at this time’s realities, its roadmap for an orderly, Syrian-led transition stays a worthwhile information. The decision requires the institution of a transitional authorities with full government powers that’s inclusive of Syria’s political forces, the drafting of a brand new structure, and legislative elections beneath UN supervision inside 18 months of the transition’s initiation. It additionally ensures voting rights for all Syrians, together with refugees and members of the diaspora. Notably, the textual content explicitly excludes “terrorist teams” and HTS was designated as such by the US, the European Union and the UN lower than three years after the decision’s adoption. Al-Sharaa and his allies could thus not really feel certain to stick to a decision negotiated with out their participation by overseas events which have demonised them.
It’s essential for Western governments, reasonably than speeding to discover a formal workaround to recognise HTS as a professional associate regardless of their “terrorist” designation, to press Damascus’s new rulers to provoke a genuinely inclusive political transition according to the rules outlined within the 2015 decision.
To this finish, Syrian civil society – each public entities and people lengthy suppressed or clandestine, inside the nation and among the many diaspora – should urgently mobilise to create areas for political and civil dialogue that transcend communal affiliations.
The danger is evident: Syria beneath HTS may remodel into a bigger model of Lebanon, with establishments that seem democratic and republican however are in actuality managed by a slim elite that wields energy vertically by way of sectarian and clientelist loyalties, bolstered by their respective overseas patrons. Avoiding this destiny requires prioritising equal entry to primary providers and basic rights – comparable to healthcare, schooling, employment, and housing – in a fashion that’s inclusive and equitable, reasonably than unique and sectarian.
Solely by fostering lively citizenship and constructing horizontal connections throughout communal divides can Syrians guarantee a future free from the corrosive legacies of al-Assad’s authoritarianism.
The views expressed on this article are the writer’s personal and don’t essentially mirror Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
