The GOP personal inner polling from the Senate Management Fund reveals Kamala Harris main Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
A abstract of the Senate and presidential polling numbers from a memo:
Texas: Cruz +1 (48-47), Trump +5 (50-45)
Wisconsin: Baldwin +1 (46-45), Trump +1 (46-45)
Pennsylvania: Casey +2 (48-46), Harris +1 (49-48)
Montana: Sheehy +4 (48-44), Trump +17 (57-40)
Arizona: Gallego +5 (47-42), TIE pres (47-47)
Ohio: Brown +6 (45-39), Trump +4 (47-43)
Nevada: Rosen +7 (43-36), TIE pres (46/46)
Maryland: Alsobrooks +7 (48-41), Harris +29 (61-32)
Michigan: Slotkin +8 (46-38), Harris +3 (45-42)
Inner Republican polling polling numbers are based mostly on a rosy turnout situation for the GOP, so the takeaway from these numbers is that even with an excellent Republican turnout mannequin, Trump continues to be trailing in two of the three blue wall states.
If Trump loses, Michigan and Pennsylvania, he loss the election.
Aside from Jon Tester in Montana, Senate Democratic incumbents are greater than holding their very own. The Republican polling memo makes it clear that the GOP is relying on Trump profitable in locations like Michigan and Pennsylvania and pulling the Republican Senate candidates over the end traces. If Trump loses these states, the GOP Senate candidates are in all probability cooked too.
Add in the truth that Republicans might lose a Senate seat in Nebraska to an Unbiased, and the GOP management of the Senate is way from a given. If Ted Cruz will get upset in Texas, Republican goals of Senate management if Harris wins the election will useless.
If the Republican inner polls present Harris main in key swing states, it’s a unhealthy signal for the GOP and Trump simply weeks earlier than election day.
To touch upon this story, be a part of us on Reddit.
Awards and Skilled Memberships
Member of the Society of Skilled Journalists and The American Political Science Affiliation
