This text is a part of the US-China Dynamics sequence, edited by Muqtedar Khan, Jiwon Nam and Amara Galileo.
One of many founding fathers of geopolitics, Mackinder (1904), emphasizes the significance of Central Asia for the command on the earth due to its location within the heart of Eurasia. Equally, Brzezinski (1997) highlights the geopolitical position of the area within the post-Chilly Conflict interval. Whereas the affect of Russia and China in Central Asia, which incorporates Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, is plain, the position of the USA in a ‘New Nice Recreation’ between nice powers is questionable. The US has created and led a liberal world order for the reason that finish of World Conflict II and has been curious about stopping a transition to a multipolar system with its grand technique of ‘extraregional hegemony’ (Layne 2006). As the USA emerged because the unipole after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia and China began to problem the U.S. place and pursue methods to be acknowledged as nice powers (Larson and Shevchenko 2010). Since 1992, China has had a grand technique of rejuvenation (regaining its nice energy standing), which developed from ‘conceal and bide’ to ‘peaceable rise’ after which to Xi’s ‘Chinese language Dream’ primarily based on reassurance, reform, and resistance (Goldstein 2020). The principle query is whether or not a rising China poses a menace to the worldwide order and American energy (Doshi 2021; Ikenberry 2008; Owen 2019; Schweller and Pu 2011). No matter China’s insurance policies, it may be argued that the ‘assertive China’ discourse can have an effect on U.S. overseas policymakers’ interpretations of Chinese language overseas coverage and slender their choices (Johnston 2013). Because the present grand technique and perceptions in the USA make the rise of China a possible menace to its pursuits in the long term, the USA has targeting stopping China from disturbing the world order and difficult U.S. management. Therefore, it has pursued insurance policies to compete with China and comprise its rising affect.
Whereas geopolitical competitors with China is the primary coverage focus of the USA, Russia is one other state that it considers a menace to worldwide stability. Certainly, the Nationwide Safety Technique (NSS) by the Biden administration (White Home 2022) highlights the competitors between democracies and autocracies, emphasizing the necessity for U.S. management to maintain the worldwide order free, open, and safe. It particularly focuses on China and Russia, as China goals to reshape the worldwide system to its benefit, whereas Russia’s aggressive actions pose quick threats to world stability. The NSS emphasizes the necessity to out-compete China within the Indo-Pacific area and globally and to constrain Russia’s destabilizing actions. It underscores the significance of sustaining strategic alliances.
Within the U.S.-China competitors, the U.S. seeks to stop China from increasing its world affect, notably within the Indo-Pacific. Nonetheless, it has ignored Central Asia, the place China has gained geopolitical energy, particularly by the Belt and Highway Initiative (BRI). The BRI, aimed toward constructing financial relations underneath Chinese language management, can threaten the U.S. worldwide place. Consequently, the U.S. would possibly want to extend its affect in Central Asia to counter China’s rising energy on this area, which is situated close to each China and Russia —two states whose disruptive affect on the worldwide order the USA goals to constrain.
You will need to make clear how Central Asia suits into the USA’s grand technique of preserving world management and containing China and what coverage choices in direction of the area it may formulate. This chapter argues that the USA has nationwide pursuits in participating with Central Asia and discusses the constraints, alternatives, and coverage selections it faces whereas confronting Russia and China and interacting with the international locations within the area. The article discusses (1) U.S. pursuits in Central Asia, (2) the position of China and Russia within the area, (3) Central Asian states’ overseas coverage stances in direction of exterior actors, and (4) the attainable actions with which the USA might additional its pursuits within the area.
U.S. Pursuits in Central Asia
The US has restricted engagement with Central Asia, attributable to a number of elements. Firstly, Central Asia includes landlocked states surrounded by U.S. rivals or adversaries akin to Russia, China, and Iran. Secondly, the regimes governing Central Asian states usually view Western international locations with suspicion. Certainly, the USA has primarily related Central Asia with its presence in Afghanistan and considerations about terrorism. Total, Central Asia is just not a precedence in U.S. coverage, leading to an advert hoc strategy. Nonetheless, the USA adopted the Technique for Central Asia 2019-2025, indicating its continued curiosity within the area (Division of State, 2020). This technique outlines varied pursuits, together with supporting the sovereignty of Central Asian states, fostering the rule of legislation and respect for human rights, and growing U.S. funding within the area, in addition to coping with terrorism and stabilizing Afghanistan. Furthermore, it seeks to boost connections between Central Asia and Europe and South Asia, reflecting the USA’ purpose of lowering Russian and Chinese language affect within the area. The technique additionally states that engagement in Central Asia will advance U.S. nationwide safety pursuits, promote cooperation to steadiness in opposition to the area’s neighbors, and help enterprise initiatives that additionally profit U.S. employment. One other indication of U.S. curiosity is the initiation of C5+1 summits of overseas ministers in 2015. The NSS (White Home 2022) mentions Central Asia in two contexts: Russia’s destabilizing actions in different international locations and U.S. help for the soundness and pursuits of Central Asia, together with by the C5+1 platform.
Russia and China might type a brand new coalition that may problem US pursuits. Russia and China signed a roadmap for nearer navy cooperation on November 23, 2021, following U.S. bomber flights close to their borders. On February 4, 2022, a joint assertion by Russia and China asserted that their friendship ‘has no limits.’ Consequently, the USA wants to stop the strengthening of ties between Russia and China whereas avoiding actions that would additional unite them. That is particularly pertinent as China and Russia deepen their partnership and cooperation following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Thus, the USA will be anticipated to have a transparent coverage in direction of Central Asia, a area neighboring each China and Russia. Total, the USA wants engagement with Central Asia given its following pursuits: to maintain its management of the worldwide order by countering makes an attempt to disrupt it; to stop financial dominance by China; and to counter terrorism and instability within the area. The primary two pursuits (geopolitical and financial) are instantly associated to the perceived menace by China. Certainly, competitors with China alone presents a long-term rationale for selling U.S. pursuits in Central Asia, as the USA wouldn’t wish to lose the area to China, which might use it to extend its financial and political energy.
How the USA can unfold its affect in Central Asia depends upon the context and circumstances of the area. Whereas the relative powers and roles of the USA, China, and Russia matter on the systemic degree, Central Asian states even have company. Thus, to evaluate the required means for the USA to succeed, it is very important know the way China and Russia affect the area, how they could oppose elevated engagement by the USA, and the way Central Asian states formulate their overseas insurance policies.
China and Russia in Central Asia
China has began to realize affect in numerous elements of the world by its financial insurance policies. Its relations with Central Asia are even stronger due to geographical proximity. Certainly, China is without doubt one of the important buying and selling companions of the Central Asian states, and commerce in power is an important subject each for them and China. For a very long time, the Central Asia international locations had been depending on Russia for exporting their power sources. The diversification of the power market turned vital for the safety of those states. China supplied such diversification by investing in pipeline building and changing into the area’s major power importer. The BRI undertaking is anticipated to strengthen financial relations between Central Asian states and China, as China seeks financial integration and invests in these international locations. The infrastructure initiatives linking China to Europe are anticipated to deliver growth to the area, making the BRI initiative notably important for the landlocked international locations of Central Asia. Whereas considerations have been raised about China’s potential use of debt-trap diplomacy, Van der Kley and Yau (2021) argue that Chinese language companies are aware of native calls for and contribute to financial growth in Central Asia.
As for Russia, Moscow considers the post-Soviet area its sphere of affect, viewing it as important for serving Russia’s curiosity of being a regional hegemon. Russia goals to exert affect and management over the post-Soviet states to dominate the area, form its insurance policies, restrict the affect of different states, and finally attain nice energy standing. To attain this purpose, Russia has employed varied strategies, together with the usage of establishments such because the Collective Safety Treaty Group (CSTO) and the Eurasian Financial Union (EAEU), pursuing a technique of ‘cooperative hegemony’ (Šćepanović 2021). Certainly, Russia has been cautious of different powers’ presence in its neighborhood, contemplating this as interference in its sphere of affect. Usually, Russia is suspicious of Western international locations’ actions and opposes their promotion of liberal values. Russia’s actions in direction of Georgia and Ukraine illustrate the way it can react to perceived threats to its energy within the post-Soviet area. Accordingly, Russia feels a have to approve the extent of the presence of different powers in Central Asia. First, Russia doesn’t tolerate the USA within the area, particularly given the strained relations between the 2 international locations following the annexation of Crimea, interference in US elections, cyberattacks, and the invasion of Ukraine. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the USA has responded by imposing sanctions, participating in diplomacy, and offering navy assist to weaken Russia economically, diplomatically, and militarily. The rivalry between the USA and Russia signifies that elevated U.S. engagement in Central Asia is not going to be welcomed by Russia.
Second, Russia is permitting China to pursue its financial pursuits in Central Asia. China’s pursuits within the area are perceived as restricted, because it doesn’t search political affect in Central Asia. Whereas some argue that the BRI and the EAEU might result in competitors, others counsel that these initiatives don’t battle (Kaczmarski, 2017). Russia doesn’t oppose the BRI as a result of it is usually curious about benefiting from financial integration with China. It’s noteworthy that Russia maintains strategic relations with China, and each international locations seem to respect one another’s pursuits, fostering cooperation and avoiding conflicts. Furthermore, not like the USA, each Russia and China are ruled by authoritarian regimes and share an curiosity in protecting the USA away from their neighborhood. Moreover, Russia and China appear to have reached an settlement relating to their respective roles within the area with the Shanghai Cooperation Group (SCO).
After the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, China has emerged as an vital ally of Russia whereas formally sustaining a impartial stance. China has rhetorically supported Russia, arguing that NATO violated Russia’s safety pursuits. Gabuev (2023; 2024) highlights that their relationship has strengthened considerably throughout commerce, know-how, navy, and diplomatic areas. Regardless of abstaining from direct navy help, China continued to commerce with Russia, considerably serving to the Russian financial system. Whereas the Chinese language-Russian relationship is asymmetrical, with Russia relying closely on China, China additionally advantages geopolitically from a more in-depth partnership with Russia and economically from the power commerce. In addition to SCO, China and Russia cooperate inside BRICS. Total, the partnership between China and Russia goals to counter Western dominance and problem American energy, resulting in elevated cooperation and alignment. Addressing this alignment would require a strategic strategy from the West.
In abstract, Russia doesn’t understand the growing financial affect of China in Central Asia as a right away menace to its pursuits. Whereas Russia stays cautious about potential threats, notably as China strengthens its ties with Central Asian states, the absence of specific political ambitions from China and a mutual understanding permit Russia to just accept China’s involvement within the area. Thus, Russia and China might need a form of shared hegemony within the area, whereas the USA would possibly confront these international locations as united in opposition to it.
Central Asian States’ Pursuits
Though the pursuits and relative energy of the USA, China, and Russia can matter, finally, which one might need extra affect in Central Asia depends upon Central Asian states themselves, because the competitors could be over these states. You will need to look at the pursuits and reactions of Central Asian states to grasp whether or not and the way U.S. overseas coverage in direction of the area can succeed. As Cooley (2012) argues, any power-seeking affect within the area is anticipated to play by the ‘native guidelines.’ It’s value noting that whereas we will deal with the states collectively resulting from their many similarities, there are additionally vital variations between them. Nonetheless, on this chapter, I look at these states collectively for 2 causes: the elements influencing their coverage selections are comparable, and the evaluation goals to judge U.S. overseas coverage in direction of the area as a complete.
Central Asian leaders are involved about regime survival. Because of this they’re unlikely to understand Russia or China as threats to the regime due to their comparable attitudes to Western values. They’re believed to have a political system much like Russian ‘sovereign democracy.’ Moreover, China doesn’t require any inner modifications in these international locations in change for financial help, not like Western establishments. As these international locations are not looking for the promotion of democracy or human rights, which might threaten the regime, they keep away from the ‘destabilizing’ affect of Western international locations, together with the USA. Certainly, students have explored the affect of home regimes on post-Soviet states’ methods in direction of nice powers (e.g., Horowitz and Tyburski 2012; Miller 2006).
Whereas China and Russia have a bonus over the USA when it comes to not being perceived as a menace, this doesn’t imply that Central Asian states lack an curiosity in good relations with the USA. Usually, the ideas of multi-vectorism and hedging are used to clarify smaller post-Soviet states’ methods in direction of bigger states. Gnedina (2015) writes that multi-vector insurance policies contain states neither balancing nor bandwagoning; as a substitute, they discount with exterior actors to get advantages. Kuik (2021) defines hedging conduct “as insurance coverage searching for conduct underneath conditions of excessive uncertainty and excessive stakes, the place a rational state avoids taking sides and pursues reverse measures vis-à-vis competing powers to have a fallback place” (300). That’s, these states diversify their alliances and partnerships to keep away from unique alignment with any single energy, searching for to steadiness the affect of bigger powers whereas guaranteeing they profit from these relations. Certainly, Central Asian states’ overseas coverage strategy will be characterised as one in all ‘danger administration’ primarily based on conservatism, pragmatism, and multi-vectorism (Radnitz 2018). As an instance, the area’s political, navy, and financial relations with Russia haven’t precluded it from searching for financial advantages from China. Central Asian states have additionally benefitted from help supplied by Western international locations, together with the USA. Except their regimes face criticism or threats, Central Asian states are typically open to cooperation with Western international locations.
Concerning the relations of Central Asian states with Russia, China, and the USA, the scope and areas of interplay differ. First, Central Asian states have political, navy, financial, and cultural relations with Russia (Skalamera 2017). Russia has political affect within the area. Certainly, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are members of the CSTO. Russia additionally serves as a big supply of revenue for these international locations. Not solely do they export merchandise to Russia, however many individuals additionally migrate to Russia and ship remittances to their households. Cultural and historic ties exist amongst these international locations resulting from their shared Soviet legacy, additional strengthening Russia’s comfortable energy over them; the Russian language is frequent within the area, and Russian media channels are most popular by many. Second, relations with China are primarily financial, as these international locations depend on China for financial advantages. Nonetheless, some teams inside Central Asia understand China’s rise as a menace, and consultants query China’s position within the area; certainly, cultural variations additionally play a job, as China has been considered as an opponent of Turkic folks and Islam (Peyrouse 2016). Lastly, relations with the USA have predominantly centered on help or counterterrorism. There may be potential for U.S. comfortable energy, as persons are prepared to enhance their requirements of dwelling, whereas some teams advocate for higher democracy of their international locations.
It’s equally vital to grasp the perceptions of the USA, China, and Russia held by the folks of Central Asia. Kennedy and Southern (2021) argue that Central Asians have extra belief in Russia and China, as the USA is much less energetic within the area. A Gallup ballot discovered that individuals had higher perceptions of Russia, adopted by China and the USA (McGlinchey and Laruelle 2019). Focus teams revealed {that a} lack of expertise contributed to unfavorable views of the USA and China. Subsequently, engagement by the USA and China with the folks of those states might assist enhance their approval scores. This implies there’s an space of competitors between these international locations.
One other frequent subject for Central Asian states is the definition of their nationwide pursuits (De Haas 2016). Sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity are prioritized, shaping the overseas insurance policies of those states. Central Asian states have expressed opposition to overseas interference of their affairs and the presence of navy troops on their territories. Moreover, they emphasize the significance of home safety and stability, viewing home unrest as the primary menace. Consequently, they’re reluctant to permit freedom for civil society, viewing it as a possible disruptor of regime stability. This attitude contributes to their notion of Western democracy promotion as a menace. In abstract, Central Asian states search to keep away from interference from exterior actors and preserve home stability.
It’s value noting that though the Russian invasion of Ukraine appears to have precipitated alarm amongst Central Asian states, they’ve continued their pragmatic strategy to overseas coverage, distancing themselves from the battle and sustaining their multi-vector insurance policies. They preserve a cautious place to not anger Russia and proceed common relations with Russia, China in addition to the West, together with the USA. In any case, the USA wants to contemplate the pragmatic overseas coverage attitudes of Central Asian states and guarantee engagement with the area whereas balancing the general growing affect of China.
Total, Central Asian international locations prioritize state and regime safety, present openness to states with comparable regimes, and undertake pragmatic approaches to learn from varied sources. It is a essential consideration for the USA when formulating overseas coverage in direction of the area. The success of U.S. coverage will rely upon how Central Asian states understand and settle for it, and whether or not they view its affect as official, which finally pertains to the picture and comfortable energy of the USA. Each Russia and China actively pursue insurance policies to realize comfortable energy in Central Asia, utilizing instructional initiatives to draw college students, fostering cultural ties, and selling their language and tradition (Leskina and Sabzalieva 2021).
U.S. International Coverage in direction of Central Asia
Attaining U.S. pursuits in Central Asia depends upon a coverage rooted in a transparent understanding of the area. Given China and Russia’s unified rivalry with the USA in Central Asia, and the regional states searching for to derive advantages from varied relations (except their safety is jeopardized), the USA ought to acknowledge that the area is not going to be solely dominated by one main energy. Subsequently, the USA would want to focus on growing its relative affect on this shared space. Potential actions for the USA embrace defining Central Asia’s position in its grand technique, figuring out overseas coverage targets aligned with its pursuits, and selecting acceptable means to realize these targets whereas contemplating the aforementioned regional circumstances.
Though there are competing interpretations of grand technique, drawing from the definitions supplied by many students (Manufacturers 2014; Brooks and Wohlforth 2016; Kennedy 1991; Martel 2015; Silove 2018), I undertake a broader definition and preserve that grand technique is a state’s complete and long-term strategy to reaching its highest political targets utilizing varied navy and nonmilitary means. Manufacturers (2014) and Martel (2015) argue {that a} coherent and context-tailored grand technique with a correct relationship between means and ends is important. If grand technique is formulated coherently, then it turns into clear how totally different areas of the world could be associated to nationwide pursuits in the long run. A grand technique would allow the USA to explicitly state the position of Central Asia for its pursuits, as a substitute of taking advert hoc steps. As talked about earlier than, the USA has an curiosity within the area to the extent that it needs to keep up its management of the worldwide order as China is rising.
Throughout the framework of its grand technique, the USA would want to interact with Central Asia to extend its position within the area relative to China and Russia. As a part of its curiosity in stopping the rise of latest hegemons in different areas, the USA would want to enhance connections with Central Asian states. If extra international locations be a part of China’s sphere of affect, it might emerge as a brand new regional hegemon. In the long term, China might doubtlessly achieve dominance in Central Asia and safe Russia as an ally. Subsequently, Central Asia is more likely to play a big position within the grand technique of the USA, which goals to safe its management place on the earth and compete with China.
The US can strengthen its relations with Central Asian states, offering them with one other exterior actor to contemplate of their multi-vector overseas insurance policies. These international locations extremely worth their independence and stability and are cautious of interventions. They’re unlikely to totally settle for the affect or dominance of any nice energy and will really feel extra threatened by Western states. Subsequently, the USA can improve engagement within the area by fostering strategic and financial relations with Central Asian states. With out political, navy, or institutional aspirations, such actions are unlikely to disturb China or Russia. Additionally, it’s much less more likely to provoke aggressive responses much like Russia’s actions in direction of Georgia or Ukraine, given Central Asia’s lack of pro-European choice. Central Asian states themselves are hesitant to interact with Western establishments and are cautious even about Russian and Chinese language establishments. If the USA refrains from making an attempt to tie these international locations with institutional means, China and Russia are much less more likely to really feel insecure. Russia and China appear to share affect within the area, so the USA might additionally be a part of them. Shared hegemony in Central Asia is a risk, notably as a result of the 5 regional international locations pursue multi-vector overseas insurance policies, searching for to restrict the affect of nice powers whereas maximizing advantages from varied sources.
There are actions that the USA ought to and mustn’t take to realize legitimacy amongst Central Asian states. It could possibly profit from financial, strategic, and comfortable energy in Central Asia with out interfering within the home affairs of those international locations. The US and its allies can finance more practical packages to construct long-term partnerships.
The US can have financial initiatives with Central Asian states, as they’re curious about diversification and growth. The US has been emphasizing the significance of the North-South route to attach Central Asia and South Asia. It has supplied institutional and monetary help to the Central Asia-South Asia energy undertaking. It is usually cooperating with international locations within the area on totally different financial, power, and environmental initiatives, and so they have frequent packages specializing in joint navy workouts, American training, border safety, and capability constructing. The important thing level is that the USA would want to grab alternatives to compete with China. The area has attracted consideration due to its power sources, and whereas China has been capable of get entry to those sources, the USA couldn’t finalize the export of those sources to European international locations, Afghanistan, or Pakistan, though the failure of the plans was additionally due to the regional states’ reluctance in taking part in such initiatives. There are numerous funding alternatives that will be fascinating for U.S. companies. Briefly, the USA would want to make use of financial instruments to help Central Asian states and never lag behind Chinese language investments. Financial actions alone usually are not going to enhance attitudes in direction of the USA, however they’re an important issue within the area’s curiosity in cooperation with the USA.
Whereas actively participating with the area, the USA might additionally depend on its allies to compete with China. Certainly, it’s value noting that India, being an ally of the USA and a rival of China, might be an vital actor on this plan. India is curious about forming connections with the area, so it might assist the USA to comprise the growing position of China and profit from nearer relations with the regional states. What’s value noting is that Russia appears to just accept India’s engagement with the area, and India and Russia have strategic relations. Russia invited India to the SCO to restrict Chinese language affect within the area and is now curious about cooperating with India underneath the EAEU. With India’s elevated position within the area, the US might have frequent initiatives with India and Central Asian states.
One other ally of the USA in furthering its pursuits might be the European Union (EU). The EU has been financing totally different initiatives within the area. A better evaluation of the EU’s New Technique on Central Asia exhibits that the EU additionally has geopolitical pursuits on this area, though it declared its un-geopolitical pursuits (Fawn 2021). It ought to be famous that whereas they is perhaps an extra exterior actor for Central Asia states of their hedging insurance policies in direction of Russia and China, their emphasis on democracy and human rights might backfire.
An extra space the place the pursuits of Central Asian states and the USA converge is counterterrorism. They already cooperate on this space, however this subject has turn out to be extra vital after the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. Central Asian states are prepared to just accept overseas assist in terms of combating extremism or terrorism, as they’re involved about stability. Whereas they aren’t prepared to just accept U.S. troops, different mechanisms could be welcome. Additionally, an vital case is Tajikistan. Whereas different Central Asian states haven’t been involved in regards to the energy of the Taliban in Afghanistan, Tajikistan has expressed its fear. Certainly, China began to assist Tajikistan assemble a brand new base, and there are claims that Chinese language troops have been on this nation for just a few years (Standish 2021). This implies that the USA would have to be in Central Asia to help the international locations particularly as soon as there’s demand; in any other case, China’s relative energy will proceed to extend.
One other vital means for the USA to be accepted as a official actor within the area is comfortable energy. It could possibly use public diplomacy to realize the hearts and minds of individuals. Within the pursuit of attracting folks, help initiatives and scholarships will be useful. Certainly, the USA has invested in instructional initiatives, however there are nonetheless extra alternatives that might be grasped. Given the restricted details about the USA obtainable to folks in Central Asia, the USA might improve its concentrate on packages introducing them to American tradition. Moreover, selling the English language could be more practical if there have been higher alternatives for folks to study it.
Lastly, the USA ought to train warning in its strategy. It ought to chorus from interfering within the inner affairs of Central Asian states and keep away from criticism of their regimes if it seeks to realize belief and entry. Moreover, efforts to advertise democracy ought to be averted, as such actions are sometimes considered as threats to current regimes. Failure to keep in mind these issues might hinder efforts to construct higher relations with these states, doubtlessly driving them additional in direction of Russia and China.
Conclusion
This text has mentioned the pursuits of the USA in Central Asia and why it wants to extend its affect within the area in competitors with China. After contemplating the relative pursuits and affect of the USA, China, and Russia within the area in addition to analyzing the circumstances and pursuits of Central Asian states, the chapter has argued what kind of technique, insurance policies, and actions the USA is more likely to have for fulfillment. The US wants to obviously state the connection of Central Asia to its grand technique, specializing in the overseas coverage purpose of participating with the area. Actions are more likely to embrace financial engagement, help of allies, counterterrorism cooperation, and the usage of comfortable energy instruments, whereas avoiding interference within the inner affairs of Central Asian states.
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White Home. 2022. “Nationwide Safety Technique.” October 2022. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-Nationwide-Safety-Technique-10.2022.pdf.
Additional Studying on E-Worldwide Relations
