The Sino-American Competitors in Europe

This text is a part of the US-China Dynamics collection, edited by Muqtedar Khan, Jiwon Nam and Amara Galileo.

For many years, students have written on the decline of america (US), the rise of China, and the seemingly inevitable hegemonic competitors between the powers because the worldwide system morphs from a interval of post-Chilly Conflict American unipolarity to one thing new (Mearsheimer 2001; Ikenberry 2008; Blackwill and Tellis 2015). Debate swirls as to China’s intentions because it rises, how the US ought to reply to its discount in relative energy capabilities, and whether or not or not a Chinese language-dominated worldwide system would differ in vital methods from the present world order. Tensions between the US and China have already begun to rise as evidenced by the Trump administration’s public ‘commerce battle’, the Biden administration’s diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, and the ramping up of army capabilities on either side within the South China Sea. 

As these two poles on reverse ends of the globe battle for supremacy, one other energy is prone to have vital affect over the functioning of worldwide politics: Europe. The continent of Europe is dwelling to a lot of developed and industrialized, populous and affluent states that, mixed beneath the European Union (EU) and North Atlantic Treaty Group (NATO), maintain vital army, financial, and cultural energy. The mixed economies of the EU and United Kingdom (UK) have the second-highest gross home product (GDP) on this planet, trailing solely the US (World Financial institution 2021). The militaries of Europe are amongst a few of the most superior on this planet, with nuclear capabilities impartial of the American arsenal. If China desires to de-throne the US because the chief of the worldwide system, or obtain a system of shared hegemony, it can probably must not less than weaken the trans-Atlantic alliance that has bolstered American predominance because the finish of World Conflict II. On the similar time, if the US hopes to stave off China’s development in energy, it can probably want its European allies to assist curb the financial big’s continued ascendence.

This chapter seeks to research how the US and China are courting and/or dropping affect (or leverage) over Europe as a approach of sustaining/rising their worldwide positions. Recognizing the ability and company of Europe, the chapter additionally analyzes the methods through which Europe could possibly push again and affect the relationships it has with the superpowers to its east and west. The paper begins with a justification for a regionalization of Europe and the examine of it as a singular unit of research vis-à-vis the US and China. The following three sections look at the ways in which the US and China are gaining and/or dropping leverage over Europe in three key areas: (i) militarily; (ii) economically/technologically; (iii) governmental construction. This chapter additionally evaluations the  European counterinfluence on the relationships with these two superpowers. Lastly, the chapter concludes by exploring the potential of Europe standing for example of a shared Sino-American affect on the worldwide stage. If the US and China can peacefully coexist in European affairs, is it attainable for the 2 powers to share hegemonic energy over the worldwide system within the mid-Twenty first century? 

Europe as a Regional Bloc

An essential side of this evaluation is the view that Europe is a singular, regional unit of research. In an analogous vein to John Mearsheimer’s (2001) seminal examine of nice powers, if the US and China hope to be thought-about leaders on the worldwide stage, they want to have the ability to exert some type of leverage in different areas of the world to provide outcomes favorable to them. Europe is a major participant on the worldwide stage, and the flexibility to carry some sway over the highly effective bloc might be key for the US and China. Nonetheless, questions come up concerning the viability of viewing Europe as a singular unit to be influenced given the variety of sizes, economies, cultures, and militaries of states on the continent. The presence of two supranational establishments – the EU and NATO – binds the financial and army pursuits of the continent collectively, permitting for the area to be studied as an entire. 

Many of the states of Europe are members of both the EU or NATO if not each. Stretching from Portugal to Turkey and from Iceland to Greece, these two establishments connect their members to 1 one other. Save for some exceptions, the nations of Europe are indirectly reliant on each other for financial and army stability. Although some could think about NATO to principally be a US-led establishment (Richey 2019), for the needs of this examine NATO continues to be a helpful unit of research to discover the methods through which the European nations of the treaty group are sure collectively in army protection by means of clauses corresponding to Article 5 (North Atlantic Treaty Group 2023). There’s undeniably an unlimited range of home political priorities and financial growth amongst EU and NATO member states. Nonetheless, the collective protection and negotiating energy of those establishments creates a standard curiosity amongst these states, in addition to a united entrance towards different worldwide actors. 

Whereas there are some states on the continent that aren’t celebration to both group, EU and NATO member states nonetheless have an incentive to keep up stability with these states on their collective borders. And these non-affiliated states have cause to keep up working relations with the remainder of the continent. That is exemplified no higher than with the escalation of hostilities inside Ukraine. The Russian invasion in 2022 has solely elevated requires EU membership in Ukraine, in addition to requires NATO membership in Finland and Sweden (Morcos 2022; Mitchell 2022). Throughout this time of disaster, the continent seems to be strengthening its bonds within the face of an aggressive worldwide actor. 

Questions over the energy of EU and NATO continuity additionally look like subsiding. Following the historic vote by the individuals of the UK to depart the EU in 2016, some feared that what got here to be generally known as ‘Brexit,’ coupled with the rise of right-wing populism all through Europe, would sign the start of serious struggles for the longevity of the continental establishment (Malik 2018). Issues over a cascading line of state exits from the EU seem to have died down. The UK and EU are nonetheless vital commerce companions (the EU accounts for 42% of British exports and 50% of its imports) and thus are inclined in direction of amicable cooperation, whereas no different main makes an attempt have been made by another member to depart the EU (UK Home of Commons Library 2021). 

Following public complaints about NATO by then-US President Donald Trump, questions arose about the way forward for NATO as properly (Reuters 2017). The US is unlikely to depart NATO, and within the inconceivable occasion it does, the remaining army powers of Europe have a nationwide curiosity in sustaining the safety of all the continent. Due to the financial and army convergence of pursuits in Europe, thanks largely to the EU and NATO, the continent will be analyzed as a single unit in relation to how the US and China could try to realize affect over the bloc of countries. The next three sections discover the methods through which the US and China could possibly exert some leverage over Europe when it comes to army, financial/technological issues, and governmental construction, as the 2 nations wrestle for management of the worldwide system, whereas additionally highlighting how Europe could possibly exert its personal affect in response. 

Competing Navy Affect

The primary of three realms of affect on this evaluation facilities on army capabilities. The US, China, and lots of states inside Europe preserve giant and technologically superior armies. The next paragraphs analyze the methods through which the US and China could use their militaries and treaties to leverage Europe. The presence of NATO offers the US a major benefit on this realm. 

A serious supply of American affect over Europe comes from its continued membership in NATO. The army alliance between the US, Canada, and 28 European nations retains these states unified of their safety pursuits, in addition to reliant on American troops and help. The US contributes way more to NATO (each in absolute phrases in addition to in proportion of nationwide GDP) than another nation within the group. NATO allowed the US to accommodate greater than 64,000 troops in lots of of army bases throughout Europe in 2020 (US Division of Protection 2021). Whereas the US is extremely unlikely to make use of these American troops on the European nations themselves, this troop presence retains Europe depending on American help and help for army issues. This relationship is mutually helpful for all members because the US enjoys the help of their European allies, whereas Europe is protected beneath the American safety umbrella.

The US additionally accounts for probably the most arms imported into Europe. Based on the Stockholm Worldwide Peace Analysis Institute (SIPRI), 47% of European arms imports from 2016–2020 got here from the American authorities (Wezeman, Kuimova, and Wezeman 2021). Israel was the second largest non-European provider of weapons to the continent, accounting for a considerably smaller 6.7% of arms imports to Europe in the identical timeframe. Wanting particularly on the usually bigger and extra diversified economies and militaries of Western and Central Europe, the US accounted for 56% of those particular nations’ arms imports from 2016 to 2020. Of the six European states who imported probably the most weapons from 2016–2020, the US was the most important provider of weapons to every of those nations. A couple of out of each 20 weapons (5.5%) bought between any pair of nations globally from 2016–2020 moved from the US to a European nation (Wezeman, Kuimova, and Wezeman 2021). As will be seen, the US is by far the most important exporter of weapons to Europe, constructed largely round relationships established by means of NATO, in addition to the thriving American military-industrial complicated. 

Whereas the US enjoys a considerable amount of army affect over Europe by means of NATO, the superpower has misplaced some credibility with its allies. Tensions over the disastrous wars in Afghanistan and Iraq grew as European help for the long-lasting and expensive conflicts dried up. Former President Trump’s criticisms of NATO have finished little to fix army relations throughout the Atlantic. Whereas wars within the Center East and complaints about NATO funding have harm American army standing in Europe, it’s clear that the Europeans nonetheless rely closely on America for help. NATO gives the US a superb type of affect over Europe to garner help for army actions taken by the world superpower. 

China’s army affect over Europe is nowhere close to that of the US. China doesn’t maintain any vital variety of troops or weapons inside Europe. China doesn’t take pleasure in a army alliance with Europe, in distinction to the US and NATO. Whereas China is rising as a world arms supplier, most of its exported weapons are going to Pakistan and Bangladesh. These South Asian states account for greater than half of Chinese language army exports from 2016–2020 (Wezeman, Kuimova, and Wezeman 2021). Based on the Heart for Strategic & Worldwide Research (CSIS), Serbia was the one European nation to obtain any arms imports from China in 2020 (CSIS 2021). Serbia, neither a of the EU nor NATO on the time of writing, made a weapons take care of China for radar-guided missiles and armed drones (Reuters 2020). Based on Collin Koh, China struggles to export weapons for 2 causes: (i) the political prices of coping with China, and (ii) Chinese language weapons have largely not been fight examined and due to this fact lack the popularity of American arms (Jennings 2021). China imports some weapons from a lot of European nations together with France, Germany, the UK, Ukraine, and Switzerland. Nonetheless, Chinese language purchases of weapons are solely vital to Ukraine – China is the most important purchaser of Ukrainian weapons at 36% of 2021 Ukrainian arms exports (Wezeman, Kuimova, and Wezeman 2021). Nonetheless, on the entire, China doesn’t evaluate to the US as an importer or exporter of European arms. 

As China has continued to solidify its buying and selling routes to Europe by means of its Belt and Street Initiative, the Individuals’s Liberation Military Navy (PLAN) has develop into more and more energetic across the waters of Europe. PLAN ships have been repeatedly noticed within the Strait of Hormuz, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic Ocean (Garamone 2020; Godement 2021). Whereas China doesn’t have the naval presence in Europe to pose a severe safety risk, these actions do show a Chinese language curiosity and functionality in sending naval ships to guard transport lanes to Europe. If the Chinese language proceed their speedy development in naval energy and preserve their standing as the most important navy on this planet with over 350 ships, they might enhance their presence in European waters within the title of defending commerce (US Division of Protection 2020). Even with this occasional naval presence close to Europe, China’s army affect over the continent is dwarfed by that of the US. 

Competing Financial/Technological Affect

The following realm of affect on this examine facilities across the financial and technological sectors of affect. The US, Europe, and China characterize the three largest economies on this planet; trillions of {dollars}’ price of products and providers are produced and traded amongst them. The next paragraphs analyze the methods through which the US and China could use their large economies and tech industries to affect Europe. The US is at present Europe’s largest buying and selling accomplice, as soon as once more giving it a bonus over China, although the latter’s rising financial system could develop into more and more enticing to Europe.

The US alone produces extra items and providers than another nation on this planet. Based on the World Financial institution, its GDP in 2020 was over $20.9 trillion. This offers the nation great energy in negotiating commerce offers with different states and overseas entities. The US greenback can also be the forex of world financial order, once more benefiting the US as its forex is valued internationally. 

The US is at present working a commerce deficit with the EU, which means America is importing greater than it’s exporting from EU member states. Based on the European Fee, in 2019 (the final fiscal yr the UK was part of the EU and the newest yr with full knowledge accessible), the US exported $513.1 billion price of products and providers to the EU, whereas importing over $676.1 billion (European Fee 2021). The US imports extra from the EU than another nation on this planet. The US additionally sends extra overseas direct funding (FDI) – $2.26 trillion in 2019 – to the EU than another nation on this planet (European Fee 2021). These commerce and FDI numbers alone give the US an amazing quantity of leverage over the EU as a result of if it have been to threaten to droop financial relations with the EU, the European financial system would wrestle to seek out any nation (and even grouping of countries) that will have the ability to match the variety of imports the US at present takes from the EU. Now, the US is once more unlikely to threaten to cancel commerce relations with the EU as a result of it additionally advantages the US to have a robust buying and selling accomplice in Europe. Nonetheless, European reliance on American commerce and funding is prone to hold the nations of the EU tightly sure to the US and its imaginative and prescient for the world financial order. 

An apt instance of the financial affect the US holds over Europe is the present commerce negotiations ongoing between the US and UK. When the UK left the EU in January 2020, it additionally backed out of the collectively agreed upon US-EU commerce deal. Commerce between the US and UK alone accounted for over $273 billion in 2019. Negotiations relating to a brand new commerce deal between the US and UK have stalled because the Biden administration continues to strain the British authorities to come back to a decision with the EU relating to the Northern Irish border (BBC 2021). The US is using its financial muscle to affect the UK into taking an motion the American authorities finds preferable to its pursuits. 

China has the second largest financial system of any single state on this planet. Based on the World Financial institution, its GDP in 2020 was over $14.7 trillion. The Asian energy’s regular GDP development over the previous few a long time has pushed the talk over China’s rise as a superpower on the world stage. Much like the US, China’s large financial system offers it vital energy in commerce negotiations with different states and worldwide entities. China has made some progress in financial relations with the EU, particularly with the EU-China 2020 Strategic Agenda for Cooperation, which created a shared understanding of relations between the 2 entities. Nonetheless, Chinese language commerce with Europe nonetheless pales compared to the US (European Exterior Motion Service 2020). 

In financial relations with the EU, China exported over $447.2 billion price of products and providers to the EU, whereas importing over $283.3 billion in 2019 (European Fee 2021). China’s commerce surplus with the EU leaves it with considerably much less energy to affect European actions in a fashion much like the US. If China have been to chop off commerce with Europe, the $283.3 billion price of misplaced exports for the EU would nonetheless pale compared to the $676.1 billion the EU would stand to lose if commerce with the US floor to a halt. So, whereas the Chinese language definitely play a big function within the European financial system, the affect stemming from commerce favors the US. China can also be a significant investor in Europe, sending over $78.3 billion price of FDI to EU nations in 2019 (European Fee 2021). Fears of an inflow of Chinese language funding in Europe have simmered as FDI from China to Europe has steadily decreased since its peak in 2016 (Kratz, Zenglein, and Sebastian 2021). Chinese language FDI in Europe is considerably lower than that coming from the US, and Europe invests extra closely in China than vice versa. A good portion of Chinese language FDI comes within the type of buying management over infrastructure in European nations as a part of the Belt and Street Initiative. Chinese language corporations with ties to the federal government have invested in infrastructure initiatives throughout Portugal, Italy, Greece, Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Belarus as China continues its quest to hyperlink the entry factors of Europe to the Chinese language financial system (BBC 2019). If accomplished, the Belt and Street Initiative will hyperlink China with a lot of established and rising economies all through Asia, Africa, and Europe. 

China may maintain some benefits within the manufacturing of key know-how for the longer term. China already has a bonus over the remainder of the world within the manufacturing of smartphones, 5G telecom community gear, lithium-ion batteries, and photo voltaic panels (Whalen and Alcantara 2021). Some specialists report that China accounts for over 90% of the uncommon Earth parts used within the manufacturing of batteries utilized in smartphones, computer systems, and automobiles (Dreyer 2020). Chinese language 5G know-how firm Huawei appealed to some European corporations for its potential to cheaply create 5G infrastructure in main cities, though strain from the US cooled growth between the continent and the corporate (Fuchs 2019). This American strain on Europe over Chinese language know-how suggests {that a} shared coexistence of sturdy affect within the area could also be unlikely. Maybe a gentle diplomatic competitors for affect is extra probably than a shared hegemony or outright army competitors. In sum, Chinese language financial and technological affect over Europe continues to be not as nice as that of the US – although the rising energy is starting to make some inroads within the area. 

Competing Governmental Construction Affect

The third and remaining side of affect on this evaluation has to do with governmental construction. The presence of comparable governmental constructions might help facilitate relations between states within the worldwide system. Standing in solidarity on shared structural values gives states with a way of legitimacy in direction of each other. The shared historical past and political constructions of the US and Europe give the People a leg up in currying favor with the continent in comparison with the Chinese language. 

American dominance of the worldwide system after the tip of World Conflict II was constructed partly by its relationship with Europe. The practically century-long alliance between the US and many of the nations of Europe has fostered an elevated degree of belief and understanding among the many trans-Atlantic companions. Within the post-World Conflict II period, the US performed a big half in encouraging the unfold of liberal democratic values and governmental constructions all through a lot of Europe. Whereas there are some European nations with some autocratic tendencies (e.g., Viktor Orbán in Hungary), the continent on the entire is far nearer to an American fashion of governance in comparison with the Chinese language instance. Although states with completely different authorities and election constructions are in a position to kind working relationships (such because the US-Saudi alliance), the presence of comparable authorities constructions permits for an elevated degree of understanding and respect among the many leaders of those states. Aggressive elections for political workplace on the native, nationwide, and supranational degree in European nations assist to kind a shared sense of identification, values, and accountability with American political leaders. 

Latest US-EU summits in 2021 and 2023 have reaffirmed the member states’ dedication to selling and defending the nations’ shared democratic values (The White Home 2023). The Biden administration made a precedence of leaning on America’s democratic construction and values in forming its overseas coverage, notably in relation to Europe. The renewal of extra constructive trans-Atlantic relations beneath the Biden administration serves to additional strengthen the bond between the US and Europe and preserve this type of affect on Europe. 

Not like the US, China doesn’t share an analogous governmental construction with many of the EU. China has been branded as an authoritarian state by many governments and students because of the Chinese language Communist Get together’s (CCP) sturdy grip on energy. China can’t attraction to a shared authorities construction with the democracies of Europe, nor to a shared historical past in the identical approach the US can. Lots of the democratic values upheld by European nations aren’t current within the Chinese language regime. Although there are some aggressive elections in China, a majority of the positions of energy are chosen by means of the CCP. China has additionally been internationally condemned for its observe file on human rights. This authoritarian/democratic divide in governmental construction between China and Europe can create difficulties between the entities. China’s autocratic authorities place it in nearer relations with Russia, an autocratic foe on the japanese entrance of Europe with renewed tensions following the invasion of Ukraine. 

Whereas China’s authoritarian regime will not be enticing to most nations in Europe, it may and more and more seems to be an instance for some Jap European states. As states corresponding to Hungary, Poland, and Belarus proceed to expertise democratic backsliding, the authoritarian leaders of those nations are growing their relations with China. These autocratic governments see China for example of how one can run an efficient and highly effective authoritarian state. These European economies additionally profit tremendously from the Belt and Street Initiative and Chinese language funding. As Jakub Jakobowski notes, one China knowledgeable described Belarus as ‘our Pakistan in Europe’ – referencing the more and more pleasant relations between China and Belarus (Jakobowski 2021). If China can proceed to develop its relationship and affect over states like Poland and Hungary (members of each the EU and NATO), then the rising superpower might try to divide the European establishments. Some actions together with widespread overseas and safety coverage within the EU and declarations by NATO require unanimous settlement. China’s potential to garner help from the extra authoritarian states of Europe might dampen the cohesion of European decision-making. 

European Counterinfluence

Recognizing that the US and China don’t affect Europe in a vacuum and that the continent has mechanisms of its personal to affect the 2 superpowers, the next paragraphs discover the methods through which Europe can counterbalance towards American and Chinese language leverage. Disastrous wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and American criticisms of NATO have brought about a slight rift between the trans-Atlantic companions on army issues. For as a lot as Europe could profit from the US for its army help by means of NATO, the US additionally advantages from European help for his or her actions globally. Based on John Ikenberry (2001), a part of what has made American preponderance of energy acceptable to different states within the worldwide system is the truth that the US has hardly ever acted unilaterally. If Europe have been to reduce its historic help for and involvement in America’s international use of its army (e.g., the 2003 invasion of Iraq), the US would lose a key multilateral ally, in addition to the flexibility to point out the world that its army may is used along with others. Whether or not or not any potential withdrawal of help for future army actions would alter American habits is definitely up for debate, however the US clearly depends on European help to legitimize its army operations throughout the globe. Whereas Europe could not have the flexibility to match American or Chinese language forces, a lot of European states preserve a complicated army and nuclear arsenal that will hold the continent a related energy on the world stage.

Notably within the sphere of economics, the mixed may of Europe offers the bloc its personal vital affect and energy. Because the second-largest GDP on this planet, the European bloc has the potential to behave as a counterbalance to American and Chinese language financial affect. As mentioned above, the EU is a significant buying and selling accomplice of the US and enjoys the influential advantages of a commerce deficit with China. The EU additionally closely invests within the two world powers, sending practically $2.5 trillion price of FDI to the US and roughly $225 billion to China in 2019 (European Fee 2021). European FDI outpaces each the American and Chinese language funding in Europe which means that the Europeans additionally play a major function in world commerce and have appreciable affect over these nations as properly. 

Europe just isn’t with out its personal types of non-economic gentle energy that it may wield in its relations with the US and China as properly. Simply because the US could make the most of its shared historical past and governmental construction to curry favor with Europe, the reciprocal nature of this relationship means Europe also can sway the US. European metropolises are nonetheless among the many most traveled to on this planet (Elliot 2020). Europe can also be dwelling to a lot of high establishments of upper schooling that entice 1000’s of worldwide college students. European historical past and tradition additionally attraction to many around the globe. Imitations of European landmarks and cities abound throughout China and the US (When on Earth 2021). Whereas the US and China can definitely try to leverage Europe utilizing non-economic gentle energy primarily based on governmental construction and values, Europe additionally has a robust and influential tradition and political system(s) that’s interesting to many outdoors its personal borders. 

Prospects for a Shared Affect of Europe

In sum, the US and China have a lot of attainable overseas coverage choices to realize European help, or on the very least deter European opposition to their competitors over the worldwide system – although it’s clear that the US enjoys a greater relationship with Europe than China and is unlikely to lose this supremacy any time quickly. The US’s continued presence in NATO and arms exports to Europe offers it leverage in its relations with the continent. By importing extra European items than another nation, the US additionally enjoys financial affect. Lastly, a shared governmental construction additional strengthens Europe’s bond to the US. China just isn’t with out its personal overseas coverage choices to carve out area for its personal affect over the Europeans sooner or later. Quickly rising Chinese language markets and dominance within the manufacturing of obligatory applied sciences will develop into more and more enticing to European nations. The CCP’s authoritarian maintain on energy in China additionally serves as a mannequin for rising authoritarianism in some in European states (e.g., Poland and Hungary). This different to liberal democracy might threaten the soundness of European establishments which might be constructed largely round democratic beliefs. Lastly, China’s continued progress in its Belt and Street Initiative is definite to extend commerce and relations with Europe, bringing the 2 entities nearer collectively in time. 

The query stays as as to whether or not the US and China can peacefully coexist because the dominant forces in worldwide politics. Is it attainable that shared Sino-American affect in Europe can stand for example of what a world system dominated by the US and China might seem like? The US holds a bonus over China in all three classes of affect in relation to Europe. Conflict between the US and China over Europe appears unlikely (all three entities profit far too tremendously from steady relations). What’s extra affordable to think about is a diplomatic competitors between the 2 poles, as exemplified by the American strain towards using Chinese language 5G know-how. Envisioning the way forward for Europe beneath a shared Sino-American hegemony appears a while away given the sturdy leverage the US has within the area. However China’s diplomatic and financial development in Europe could stand for example of how the ability could exert affect in different areas not as traditionally and institutionally dominated by their American counterparts. 

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